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Wall Street banks have significantly reduced their major U.S. share gauge targets over the past two weeks as concerns grow over the potential economic fallout from the trade war by President Donald Trump.
At least 10 banks, including JPMorgan, Bank of America and Evercore ISI, have cut S&P 500 Index estimates and sent “mutual tariffs” shocked through financial markets since Trump’s decision to impose a 10% baseline obligation on most US imports.
The S&P 500 has dropped more than 7% since the initial taxation was announced on April 2, and 14% since it touched on record highs on February 19. Trump suspended mutual tariffs and created sculptures for smartphones and other electronic devices.
But economists say the uncertainty caused by the rapid U-turn in trade policy can still slow economic growth or cause a recession.
“The feelings of Goldilocks, who enrolled in this year, violated uncertainty,” Citigroup analyst Scott Cronart said in a memo.
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Wall Street’s end-of-year S&P 500 target is 6,539 compared to 6,539 at the end of last year. The S&P 500 ended with 5,283 this week.
The new forecast means that despite growing concerns about slowing economic growth, strategists are hoping the index will rise 14% in the coming months. It marked a profit of just 2% in 2025, and a major slowdown from consecutive rallies of over 20% in 2023 and 2024.
The bank’s new and cautious tone shows a humble reversal since the beginning of the year, when many market participants were hoping for low taxes and lightweight regulations to boost corporate profits under the Republican administration.
Citigroup on Friday said it expects the S&P 500 to end at 5,800. The bank also cut its earnings per share in 2025 from $270 to $255, below the average forecast of $262, Bloomberg data shows.
Chronert said recent US stocks could become “the first bear market especially triggered by US presidential actions.”
JPMorgan is expecting a “partial” relief for tariffs on April 7th, reducing its “basic case” target from 6,500 to 5,200. “We don’t think exceptionalism is over,” the bank wrote at the time.
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Peter Berezin of BCA Research said that the S&P 500’s 2025 price target is the lowest among the analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, and expected the index to close at around 4,450 this year in mid-February, meaning a 15% drop from current levels. In early March, he said it was likely that the US recession would begin within the next three months.
“There are many groups being considered on Wall Street,” Berezin said.
