The price of volatile wood has once again rattled the US housing market, squeezed builders and threatened to exacerbate the already tragic affordable crisis.
The National Association of Home Builders said that while conifer prices rose 23% year-on-year in April, the future rose sharply in early 2025 amid concerns over increased US duties and widespread sawmill closures.
This weighs heavily on major home builders Renal, Dr. Houghton and Toll BrothersI’ve seen stocks fall this spring.
On March 11, 2025, a cargo truck carrying wood from the United States in Champlain, New York, crosses the border into Canada.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Although timber has avoided being included in the latest tariffs, the Trump administration has shown growing interest in tightening trade restrictions. In March, the White House issued an executive order dictating the Department of Commerce to investigate the national security impact of timber imports and boost domestic production.
According to the NAHB, the US currently imposes a 14.5% obligation on Canadian wood, with Canada accounting for about 85% of all US softwood imports, accounting for almost a quarter of US supply.
This tariff rate could jump to 34.5% later this year after a regulatory review by the Commerce Department, further disrupting sectors already caught up in due to material costs and labor shortages.
“The unpredictability of sawn prices adds serious complexity to planning and budgeting,” said Steve Martinez, president of Idaho’s TradeWinds General Contracts. According to HomeGuide, his business has built luxury apartment complexes where timber frames are important, accounting for up to 18% of construction costs.
“Made in Canada” label from Stacks of Wood at Moulures Algonquin Moldings in Mirabelle, Quebec, Canada on Tuesday, March 11, 2025.
Graham Hughes | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Beyond home construction, the increase in timber costs has reached renovations, fencing and interiors. Annual market reviews and prospects for US forest products found that in 2023, US-made timber production was up to 64 million cubic meters, an increase of nearly 1% from the previous year. However, demand continues to outperform supply. Environmental regulations, aging forests and labor constraints exacerbate the challenges.
Nearly 100 million US households cannot afford a median home, according to the NAHB. As affordability deteriorates, experts warn that increased tariffs and continued supply instability could hinder new developments for years.
The Commerce Department is expected to reach a final decision on Canadian timber operations by August.
Watch the video to find out more about US-Canada trade tensions and what lies behind the rise in timber prices.
