John Kanjaelsi, senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center, will inspect satellite images of Hurricane Beryl, the first hurricane of the 2024 season, at the National Hurricane Center held in Miami, Florida on July 1, 2024.
Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Government scientists on Thursday released forecasts for the 2025 hurricane season, predicting a 60% chance of a above average season.
The National Maritime and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, is predicting that this season it will bring 13-19 names of storms with winds above 39 mph. The predicted 6-10 storms will grow into hurricane status, with 3-5 predicting to become major hurricanes.
Laura Grimm, representative NOAA manager and marine scientist, avoided specific questions about how budget cuts targeting climate science will affect organizations’ work, highlighting the key work of agencies that help save communities’ lives.
“Modeling, modeling and conservation of human life and property is our number one priority. Therefore, we are fully staffed at the Hurricane Center and are definitely ready,” Grimm said in honor of 20 years from Hurricane Katrina at a press conference held in Jefferson Parish, Louisiana.
Grimm also noted that NOAA’s hurricane forecast was spot-on last year thanks to improvements in science and technology over the past 20 years.
Hurricanes Helene and Milton caused more than $37 billion in insurance losses in 2024. aon.
Despite these losses, the US real estate victim insurance industry saw its highest underwriting performance since 2013, according to a report by Insurance Intelligence Agency and Milliman.
However, the report concludes that economic challenges related to January’s catastrophic wildfires and tariffs in California could attenuate industry outcomes in 2025.
Insurance companies and reinsurers collectively face more than $50 billion in losses from the Los Angeles wildfires.
The Midwest has also suffered from severe thunderstorms this spring, with inspiration, wind and tornadoes damaged. The Storm Prediction Center tallyed 883 local tornado reports as of Monday this year, 35% higher than average for this period.
Aon said the severe convection storm caused an estimated $10 billion in insurance losses in the first quarter. The three-day storm in May added another $7 billion to the insurance company tally.
Over the past decade, insurance losses averaged over $33 billion a year, an increase of 90% from the past decade.
According to Bill Clark, CEO of Demex, a reinsurance analysis group, this is an existential threat to the insurance industry and its ability to provide affordable insurance to homeowners. And the problem is that it gets worse and not good.
“Reinsurance (insurance) costs for severe convection storm losses are at a 20-year high and limited availability, making insurers ham arrogant and unable to transfer most of the increased losses,” Clark said in an email to CNBC.
Either a hurricane, a wildfire, or a severe storm. Aon condemns the surge loss for increased exposure. This means that more people live in places where climate risks are high and everything inside is more expensive.
The insurance industry is working to drive state and local efforts to build resilience and improve mitigation efforts. This means strict standards for public works projects protecting buildings and real estate, as well as defensible spaces around buildings.
Cynthia Lee Shen, president of Jefferson County Parish, killed 1,392 people in 2005, pointing to all the efforts made in the 20 years since Hurricane Katrina hit Louisiana. The government has overhauled levees, flood walls and pump stations.
“It is estimated that every dollar spent on mitigation efforts will save $13,” Sheng said. “Hurricane Katrina has also changed the face of disaster recovery. Key agencies have learned to work together to provide support, coordinate efforts and ensure efficient response.”
– Dawn Giel of CNBC contributed to this report.
