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Not long ago, we lived in one of the most peaceful times in modern history. According to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, 2005 has been the lowest recorded death toll in armed conflict since World War II. How will it change? Last year, there were 61 “state-based conflicts,” the most common since 1946, reported by Oslo, a Peace Institute. Now add the Israeli-Iran conflict. Why is there so many wars?
What’s worse than a prejudiced and brutal police is that it’s not the police. The world has changed this century. The 1990s were at the heyday of two global police officers: the United States and the United Nations. After Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, a UN resolution allowed member states to oust it. That decade, American police officers patrolled the world, calling for near normalization of international violence. The “international community” (meaning the US and friends) only tolerated civil wars in containable arenas: Somalia, Rwanda, Yugoslavia.
Peaceful norms peaked in the late 1990s, when the treaty banned landmines and established the International Criminal Court. However, the 2003 American invasion of Iraq obscured both police officers. The United Nations acted without its consent, and then the United States itself created a permanent domestic taboo to send troops overseas after its tragic war. When China and Russia reaffirmed themselves, the “international community” dissolved.
The world’s lawlessness became visible in August 2013, when Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad used sarin gas to kill 1,400 people outside Damascus. Barack Obama had warned that chemical attacks would be “red lines.” But he didn’t act. The American policeman has retired. Six months later, Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine.
The state became outlaws and slaughtered civilians, but paid little price. Imagine whether the “international community” punished Assad or Putin, or whether Mohammed bin Salman for the war in Yemen, or Paul Kagame of Rwanda became Putin of Central Africa, or whether he punished Iraq in 1990, and punished Israel for destroying Gaza. “The standard that violence cannot be used to resolve political conflicts. It’s contagious,” said Steven Everts, director of the EU Security Institute.
America no longer pretends to respect norms. The bombing of Iran without the consent of Congress or the United Nations is undoubtedly a violation of both the US Constitution and international law. Donald Trump has tolerated all international invaders except Iran. The only conflict zone he ever “puts his boots on the ground” is Los Angeles.
Trump also refunded the apparently dysfunctional global police. He cut down on the National Security Council, the State Department and Intelligence Reporting Agency personnel, and served as the 22-year-old campaign staff to the Homeland Security Agency’s Terrorism Bureau. Washington’s vast security complex has been replaced by real estate developer Steve Witcoff, who first came to Trump’s notice by paying for sandwiches at a New York deli. Witkov was unable to attack peace deals simultaneously in Ukraine, Gaza and Iran. Israel planned a war with Iran. The United States is just hooked behind it.
In a world of unintegrated norms, new weapons have made war cheaper and easier. In 2018, there were still over 1,000 drone murders around the world. Today, drones account for around 70% of deaths in the Ukrainian War.
Poor Ukraine summons itself, justifying it as “the world leader of drone warfare.” This year, the company aims to produce a $4.5 million drone. Even the Hooty rebels in Yemen can promote global inflation by drifting their ships. Myanmar engineers say, “You can build rebel drones from caves using 3D printing. Using parts cleaned from Chinese commercial drones, knowledge gained from online chat rooms.”
Drones will improve by the moon and change geopolitical calculations. China, the dominant producer of commercial drones around the world, can use military producers to conquer Taiwan alongside naval blockades, without the need for bloody ocean invasion. And a swarm of AI-controlled drones approaching, barely blockable, could also be available to terrorists.
What can you do? Everts says that without global police officers, they can appoint police officers from several regions, such as clocks in neighborhoods in Europe. It all feels fragile. Norms are historical norms of international issues. After a brief happy anomaly it’s back.
Email Simon to Simon.kuper@ft.com
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