New York Stock Exchange on August 26th, 2025.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
The August employment report on Friday will confirm the labor market is weakening.
What is important to investors? It can’t be too late or too hot.
Wall Street is heading for non-farm pay on Friday. The economist voted by Dow Jones predicts the US economy, which added 75,000 jobs last month. The unemployment rate is projected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%.
Investors may be able to shrug soft reports as long as the headline number is successful in hitting the sweet spot. Adam Crisafulli of key knowledge has a “ideal” range that meets these two requirements between 70,000 and 95,000.
The August employment report will also be vetted in large quantities for other reasons. The poor employment data data and accompanying revisions were the first last month, urging President Donald Trump to fire U.S. Director of Labor Statistics. This is a decision that prompted fears of government overview and doubt about government economic data.
Trump has appointed conservative economist Eji Antoni as the new head of the BLS. William Wiertrowsky plays the committee until Antoni is confirmed.
Market reaction
If employment figures are outside the expected range from traders, the stock market could be under pressure. Luke Tilly, chief economist at the Wilmington Trust, is worried about the surprise surprise of employment data. That’s not the case at all yet.
The economist, who forecasts 75,000 non-farm payroll growth in August, said he expects negative employment numbers to arrive late at some point. He said weak numbers could come on Friday.
KKM Financial Investment chief Jeff Killberg said that, given employment data on Friday could be stronger than expected and low expectations for the report, this could help raise interest rates and reduce the likelihood that the Fed will cut as expected this year. Many traders want three rate cuts between now and the end of the year.
Ultimately, Wall Street wants more clarity in the labor market. These are those who are shocking those who are paying attention to companies refraining from hiring or firing workers in a troubling pattern.
“Is this like a ‘low employer, low fire’, a stagnant labor market, or is there a real deterioration that is beginning to unfold? said John Belton, portfolio manager for Gabelli Growth Innovators ETF. “And historically, when the labour market starts to deteriorate, it tends to get worse quickly.”
The ADP’s private employment report, which could possibly precursor to the official figures that would follow, was weaker than expected on Thursday, but within a comfortable range that was not a panic market. Just 54,000 private salaries were added last month. The stock market was captured on Thursday following the numbers.
