Soldiers march during a military parade on June 14, 2025 to commemorate the 250th birthday of the US Army in Washington, DC, USA.
Nathan Howard | Reuters
With government shutdowns barely hoping for a quick resolution, the situation involving the US military could push forward with Washington’s fighting factions.
No, soldiers are not called into duty to force Congress to return to work.
But the looming salary in mid-October may convince 1.3 million active members of armed services to miss the date to lawmakers and the White House that political costs are not worth it.
“We believe that the military salary on October 15th could be a significant mandatory event to recover funds and hope that the closure will end by mid-October.” Goldman Sachs Economists Ronnie Walker and Alec Phillips said in client notes.
The Wall Street company noted that the forecast market has a high chance that the deadline will continue beyond the deadline. Polymarket reflects the 71% chance that a shutdown will be performed in the past on October 14th.
Each side is digging their heels in terms of financial budgets, but missing pay periods can shatter the rage of the public. At the very least, it could lead to a temporary bill known as a continuing resolution to allow the government to run, Goldman Economist said.
If not, it could mean an even longer standstill.
“We expect to put pressure on both parties to build up in order to reach a compromise earlier,” they wrote. “That being said, if this pressure leads to alternative outcomes — the defense may find a way to pay the military despite the funds being expired, or Congress may be under pressure to approve funds for that particular issue — there are few other specific forced events on the calendar that could lead to funds recovery.”
Observation has a slight hope of resolution.
The Senate is scheduled to vote Monday at 5:30pm, but observers are hoping for little progress. President Donald Trump threatened that if an agreement is not reached, some of the temporary layoffs that result from the impasse could become permanent.
There are countless issues that could force Congressional hands beyond military salaries. The release of data that policymakers rely on has been suspended, airport delays could be looming depending on whether Transportation Security Bureau workers appear, and most other government services have been closed with agreements pending.
Still, there is a fear that neither side will be upset.
“Concerns over delayed mortgage payments for military wages, TSA operations, or service members can be a catalyst for compromise,” said Ed Mills, Washington Policy Analyst at Raymond James, in a memo. “While short-term continuous resolution remains the most likely outcome, it does not rule out the risk of a long-term shutdown until November.”
Other dates to watch may be for female infant benefits on October 13th.
However, the risk of a continuing shutdown remains, according to analysts at PIMCO.
“Shutdowns are easy, but reopening is even more difficult, and this seems particularly unmanageable, at least for now,” the company said in a memo.
