Job seekers attend the Mega JobNewsUSA South Florida Job Fair at Amerant Bank Arena on September 25, 2025 in Sunrise, Florida.
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Job growth was nearly flat in September, according to data from investment giant Carlyle, which aims to fill data gaps created by the government shutdown.
The company said its own data showed that employment increased by just 17,000 jobs in the month, even lower than the 22,000 increase in August reflected in Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
With the BLS closed and data releases suspended until the impasse between Republicans and Democrats in Congress is resolved, Wall Street firms are rushing to offer alternatives to chart where the U.S. economy is headed.
Carlyle’s data varies somewhat from other releases that show little job growth.
Payroll company ADP reported last week that 32,000 jobs were lost in the private sector, including cuts due to BLS revision adjustments.
Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas also reported last week that although layoffs fell in September, the level of companies’ hiring plans reached the lowest level since 2009, when the economy was still feeling the effects of the global financial crisis.
Indeed, while Carlyle’s data showed anemic pay growth, other economic indicators painted a brighter picture.
The company said gross domestic product (GDP) growth in September continued at an annualized pace of 2.7%, and capital investment accelerated at a three-month average annual rate of 4.8%. Carlyle also reported that consumer prices for energy fell 3.8%, while services excluding shelter, a key data point for the Federal Reserve, rose 3.3%.
Carlyle said it derived the data from its “extensive global portfolio,” which includes 277 companies, 694 real estate investments and 730,000 employees.
Goldman Sachs, which recently saw weak employment data, said its “underlying employment growth” tracker added 80,000 positions in September. Goldman also reported that the labor market has eased to levels not seen in a decade, meaning there are more workers than jobs.
A New York Fed survey released Monday showed continued concerns about the state of the labor market.
According to the September monthly consumer expectations survey released by the central bank, 41.1% of people expected the unemployment rate to rise one year from now, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous month. Additionally, the average probability of losing a job in the following year increased by 0.4 points to 14.9%.
However, the probability that people expect to find work within three months of losing their current job rose to 47.4%, up from a series low of 44.9% in August.
