Economists suggest that Bitcoin prices could recover as much as 21% over the next seven days if October’s historical trends hold.
“A decline of more than 5% in October is extremely rare. This has only happened four times in the last 10 years,” economist Timothy Peterson said in an X post on Friday.
He said these cases occurred in 2017, 2018, 2019 and October 2021. In the week following each decline, Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded 16% in 2017, 4% in 2018, and 21% in 2019. The only exception was 2021, when crypto assets fell another 3%.
October is often referred to as “Uptober” because of its historically strong month.
Since 2013, October has been Bitcoin’s second-best performing month on average, with an average return of 20.10%, trailing only November, when the average return was 46.02%, according to CoinGlass data.
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could soar to $124,000
Peterson’s comments came after Bitcoin plummeted to $102,000 on Friday following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on China.
According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin just hit an all-time high of $125,100 on Monday, but has already recovered slightly to $112,468 at the time of publication.
If history repeats itself and Bitcoin mirrors October’s strongest rally (21% gain from 2019), a similar move from Friday’s low of $102,000 would take Bitcoin to just below its recent high of around $124,000 within a week.
Bitcoiner emphasizes that it is still early October
Some other Bitcoin supporters are also confident that the uptrend will continue.
“There are still 21 days left in Uptober,” Jan3 founder Samson Mow said in an X post on Friday. “This is the bottom of the current cycle,” said Michael Van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital.
Related: Bitcoin price could hit $150,000 after BTC anchors in ‘high-value territory’: Analyst
“It was the biggest liquidation crash in history. COVID-19 was the bottom of the previous cycle,” he said.
Some analysts are taking a long-term view. “In a few years, Bitcoin will plummet from $1 million to $0.8 million in a matter of hours, and everyone will be talking about the highest liquidation amount in history,” said the Bitcoin Libertarian.
“Let history repeat itself,” he said.
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