President-elect Donald J. Trump is a White House president, based in part on his pledge to curb immigration with targeted policies, ranging from sending criminals back to their home countries to more drastic policies like mass deportations. He won against the house. During his campaign, President Trump promised to abolish Temporary Protected Status, which allows workers from certain countries to come to the United States. Experts say that if some large-scale deportation efforts, such as reducing the TPS, come to fruition, there will be knock-on effects across most sectors of the economy, particularly construction, housing and agriculture.
Economists and labor experts are most concerned about the economic impact of policies that deport workers, both documented and undocumented, who are already in the United States.
Employment agencies were monitoring the election particularly closely.
“The morning after the election, we sat down as a leadership team and considered what this meant for talent retention,” said President and Chief Operating Officer of AtWork Group, a national franchise-based staffing firm. COO Jason Leverant says: AtWork provides commercial staffing services to immigrant-heavy industries, including warehousing, industrial, and agricultural industries in 39 states.
Workers (or “talent” in industry parlance) are already in short supply. Although the worst of the labor crisis caused by the post-COVID-19 economic boom has passed and labor supply and demand have returned to balance in recent months, the labor availability to fill jobs across the U.S. economy remains low. The number of people affected remains a closely watched data point. Employers and economists say mass deportations will make the economic problem worse.
“If the proposed immigration policies become reality, they could have a major impact,” Levelant said, adding that a mass deportation program could leave as many as 1 million potential jobs open that will be difficult to fill. He pointed out that there are estimates that there is a possibility that
How many illegal immigrants are working in the United States?
There are various statistics published regarding the illegal immigrant population in the United States. The left-leaning Center for American Progress estimates the number at about 11.3 million, of whom 7 million are employed. The American Immigration Council, an advocacy group that supports immigration expansion, also estimates the number of illegal aliens in the United States at about 11 million, citing data from the American Community Survey. The nonpartisan Pew Research Center estimates the number at nearly 8 million.
“There are millions of illegal aliens doing the trade, and they’re not letting Americans do the work,” said Chad Plinky, CEO of Well Built Construction Consulting, which works with construction companies. ” he said. “We need these workers. What we all want is for them to be documented. We know who they are, we know where they are, we know they are We want to make sure they pay their taxes. We don’t want them to go away.”
Lelerant said the country is still considering how to fill jobs lost due to mass deportations.
“If you attract talent from one field to another, you’re afraid someone else will lose it,” Levelant said. “This is very important and we have to get ahead of it.”
Leverant said he is not worried about AtWork losing the 20,000 workers it sends to various locations because the status of documents is heavily checked, but if other companies If they are lost, they will rely even more on staffing companies like AtWork to replace the talent they already have, he said. Short supply. Supply and demand then determine workers’ wages, forcing wages to rise. And that will ripple throughout the supply chain, all the way to supermarkets and sporting goods stores.
“We are playing a long game right now. The pain will be felt and we will see shortages, slowdowns and delays on all fronts,” he said.
Possible consequences of a limited labor supply include agricultural products not reaching the market because there are not enough workers to move them to distribution, or construction projects being delayed.
Workforce concerns extend to skilled labor and technology
There are also concerns that stricter immigration policies could have a negative impact on skilled workers.
“It’s not just low-skilled workers, it’s also spilling over into technology workers and engineers. We don’t have enough skilled people to fill those jobs,” Levelant said, adding that doctors and He added that he did not imagine scientists being rounded up. However, H-1B visa restrictions and a generally less welcoming atmosphere may prevent talent from coming to Japan.
Janisa Hollingshead, head of expansion at Uber Works, the on-demand staffing arm of the ride-hailing company, agrees that if past is prologue, technology will be affected.
“The high-tech industry relies heavily on immigrants to fill highly technical and essential roles,” Hollingshead said, noting that during Trump’s first presidency, Uber hired all high-tech workers on H-1B visas. I recalled that I had been informed that I might not be able to participate if I went to my home country for vacation. I’ll be able to go back.
According to the American Immigration Council, during the first Trump administration, the government’s U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services rejected H-1B applications at a higher rate than in the previous four years, but many of the rejections were overturned and immigration This led to a decline in the bureau’s H-1B application level. Through 2020, the rejection rate was 13%, compared to 24% in 2018. Denial rates for 2021 and 2022 are the lowest ever.
Hollingshead said U.S. tech companies will be forced to find high-tech talent from among the currently overlooked pool of talent already in the country.
“If American companies don’t figure out how to do this, they’re going to face even more severe labor shortages,” Hollingshead said.
“On day one, we will begin the largest deportation program in American history to get these criminals out of the country,” President Trump said at a rally at New York’s Madison Square Garden just before the election.
“I’m not going to dismiss his mass deportation process as rhetoric. We have to assume he means what he’s saying,” said David, head of the immigration practice group at law firm UB Greensfelder.・Leopold says.
Still, despite the potential ripple effects on the labor market, mass deportations may be difficult to achieve in practice.
“It’s very expensive to deport 11 million people,” Leopold said, adding that while Trump will use ICE and federal agencies, he will also rely on local law enforcement to round up immigrants. I expected it.
In a phone interview with NBC News’ Kristen Welker shortly after the election results, President Trump brought up his dark rhetoric on immigration, which served him well during the campaign, but said he was not opposed to people coming into the country. said. In fact, it would become mandatory if the administration’s strategy to require companies that say more people enter the country to set up operations in the United States is successful. “We want people to participate,” Trump said. “There will be a lot of companies coming into our country. They want to come to our country. … We want companies, factories, plants, car factories to come into our country. We want them to come, and they will continue to come. And that’s why we need people, but just because they killed seven people doesn’t necessarily mean they’re in jail. We also need people who don’t have one. ”
The American Immigration Council says a long-term mass deportation campaign targeting 1 million people a year reflects the “more conservative proposals” of mass deportation advocates, but would cost on average It is estimated to reach $88 billion annually. It cost $967.9 billion over 10 years.
President Trump dismissed concerns about cost in an interview with NBC News. “It’s not about price,” he says. “We don’t have a choice. When people are killing and killing and drug lords are destroying countries and now they’re going back to those countries because they’re not going to stay here. …The price tag is No,” President Trump said.
Leopold said that depending on the severity of the plan, changes could come to consumers in the form of price increases, supply issues and limited access to goods and services.
Construction and housing damage
Nan Wu, director of research at the American Immigration Council, echoed the concerns of others in predicting consumer confusion if deportations increase under the Trump administration.
Wu cited an AIC study that found that 14% of the construction industry would lose one in eight workers, saying, “Mass deportations are a major threat to the U.S. economy, especially in industries that rely heavily on undocumented immigrant workers. “This will further exacerbate ongoing labor shortages.” US workers are illegal immigrants.
“Laying off too many workers in a short period of time will increase construction costs, delay the construction of new housing, and make housing more difficult to obtain in many parts of the country,” Wu said. Ta.
The same is true for the agricultural industry, which will lose one in eight workers, she says.
“If you look at specific occupations, about a quarter of farmworkers, agricultural winnowers, and screeners are undocumented workers. , which will have a negative impact on domestic food production and increase food prices,” Wu said.
According to USDA statistics, the number of illegal farm workers in 2018, the most recent year available, was 41 percent, with California having the highest number.
The AIC estimates that the U.S. GDP will shrink by $1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion.
The conservative think tank American Compass advocates for a “skills-based immigration policy,” which requires “serious immigration enforcement to prevent people from entering the workforce illegally. Such enforcement would have a negative impact on future immigration flows.” “We need to not only respond positively, but also address the issue of unjust immigration.” “Millions of undocumented workers are already here,” the policy brief said.
Its policy priorities include mandatory use of the E-Verify system by all employers and stiff criminal penalties for repeated or willful violations. A short-term work permit available to illegal immigrants who have already been in the country for a significant period of time. However, there is a timeline set for when they must leave the country, based on how long they have already resided in the country. And those who have lived in the United States the longest can obtain permanent legal status after paying a hefty fine.
Plinky said the impact of the mass deportation program would be dramatic. “One of the obvious problems with undocumented workers is that they are undocumented, so we don’t know how many of them are here. That’s not easy. In certain areas, more than half of the field workers are undocumented. “I would bet that it is,” he said.
“If you’re building a nuclear facility or a university, there may be very few undocumented workers because there’s a much higher level of oversight,” Plinky said. “These areas will shrug their shoulders and move on.” He expected the same from union members.
However, according to Plinky, construction of single-family and multi-family homes will be significantly affected, although he believes these areas could be “paralyzed” in the housing market.
“There will be incredible delays. The average 18-month project could take five years to complete because there are so few bodies,” Plinky said. “It’s probably not going to be as devastating in Boston as it is in Austin, but it’s going to shut down all the projects in Austin,” he added.
Despite the dire predictions, Plinky does not believe mass deportations will materialize. “Donald Trump is a developer and he understands what’s going on. Mass deportations are not possible without devastating economic consequences.”
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