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Azerbaijani officials say the Caspian Sea will reach its lowest level on record within weeks, as climate change causes lasting damage to the world’s largest inland body of water.
Baku, the host country of the COP29 climate summit, has witnessed record salt water retreat over its long geological history over the past nearly 30 years, with its main stadium just minutes from the Caspian Sea.
Faig Mutarimov, head of the environmental policy department at Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Ecology, said the decline in water levels was the most “obvious” since 1995. “One of the main causes is climate change.”
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Mutarimov said that by the end of this year, water levels are expected to “reach or exceed” the lowest level ever recorded in the late 1970s, when damming of tributaries brought the water level down to 29 meters below sea level.
Other inland waters have also come under immense stress in recent years, such as the Aral Sea, which has largely disappeared in the last 50 years.
Rohit Samant, co-author of the study predicting future decline, said the Caspian Sea is unlikely to disappear completely because the south-central basin is deep.
But many port cities and towns could come under extreme stress, and other areas, including around the shallow northern basin, could also dry up.
Samant’s research, published last year in Nature’s Communications Earth & Environment, predicted that sea levels could fall between 8 and 14 meters by the end of the century.
As climate change has warmed the planet, it has increased evaporation from the oceans and changed precipitation and wind patterns, all of which have affected water levels, he said.
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The average water level of the Caspian Sea in 2023 was approximately 30 centimeters lower than the previous year, reaching its lowest point at 28.99 meters below sea level. According to the Caspian Sea Coordination Committee for Hydrometeorology, this is due to low runoff from the vast Volga River system, which runs some 3,500 kilometers through south-central Russia.
In August, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev raised what he called the “catastrophic” shrinkage of the Caspian Sea with Russian President Vladimir Putin amid growing concerns about the economic and environmental impact of the withdrawal.
Mr. Mutarimov will collaborate with government officials, scientists, and others to better understand how declining water levels in the waters bordered by Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Iran are impacting coastal infrastructure. He said a regional working group of experts was established earlier this year. such as ports and oil platforms.
More than 90 percent of Azerbaijan’s total export revenue comes from oil and gas, which when burned is the biggest contributor to climate change.
Mutarimov said shallower water would affect the “carrying capacity” of ships, forcing them to transport fewer goods. Oil rigs and platforms have also become difficult to access and operate.
Rick Faughn, senior lecturer in international relations at the University of St Andrews, said the falling water levels were also a “cause for concern” for those working in energy infrastructure. “There is no agreement on the extent of possible reductions, which is concerning as it may affect some infrastructure development.”
Speaking at COP29, United Nations Environment Program Executive Director Inger Andersen said the Caspian Sea is “under siege by a triple planetary crisis: the crisis of climate change, the crisis of loss of nature, land and biodiversity, and the crisis of pollution and waste.” ‘ he warned. ”.
It was also a crisis for humanity, she said. “Such declines will destroy ecosystems and species, threaten livelihoods, and undermine food security and stability across the region.”
The Caspian Sea is famous for its wild sturgeon, prized for its caviar, and is home to an estimated 90 percent of the last remaining stocks on Earth, as well as the endemic Caspian seal.
Some attendees at a special dinner for ministers, financiers and others during COP29 were shocked to see the receding waters around Baku visible, according to attendees. The dinner party was historically located along the coast, and was now held at a house overlooking the tidal flats.
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