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Your Guide to Washington and the World’s 2024 US Election Means
The writer is a well-known companion and former director of Chatham House.
It’s melancholy, but it’s not surprising that last week in Paris, European leaders did not agree to provide security assurances to Ukraine. When it comes to dealing with the issues of war and peace, the European government is always behind us. They represent small and medium-sized countries that have been displaced for decades under American nuclear umbrellas and traditional military forces.
However, European governments have collective economic influence. They and the EU have imposed 15 rounds of sanctions on Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and are making a sincere sacrifice to Russia. So if it was proven that Europeans were not prepared for the economic outcome of Donald Trump’s peace – more than anything, like the military, Western sanctions on Russia in exchange for the end of the battle. It proves you are ready to unlock.
European governments need to urgently develop an inventory of these sanctions that they are willing to lift in order to ensure peace. And their position must be communicated to Washington as soon as possible. Otherwise, Trump may unilaterally concede the sanctions, present them as fait common, and blame the Europeans if their reservations are torpedoing his peace deal.
For example, the European government should refuse to repay approximately 250 billion euros from the Russian central bank held by European financial institutions, as long as Moscow pays full war reparations. However, they were able to return certain Russian banks to a rapid payment system and resolve transactions with foreigners regarding unauthorized trade. Financial institutions can also insurrect Russian oil tankers, but cannot mandate a $60 selling price cap transported per barrel. After all, if Trump follows his promise to significantly increase US oil exports, this could raise Russian oil prices below the cap anyway.
But no matter which sanctions they lift and which sanctions should remain in place, Europeans must accept that Trump is seeing sanctions through a very different lens. Ukraine is a bigger power play pawn for his regime. Ending the war will help divide Russia from China, thereby strategically undermining Beijing.
Meanwhile, Europe’s main strategic priorities will ensure Ukraine’s survival as a sustainable, sovereign state, and Russia uses its military force to annex territory and establish areas of influence across borders. It prevents you from doing so. As long as Putin threatens these purposes, Europeans will want to maintain some sanctions.
Furthermore, Trump is not interested in just peace. He is only interested in peace. He made it clear that great power can do what they want and should ignore or castrate international law. In contrast, Europeans are committed to international law in favour of the security of small states. It would be difficult enough to accept lifting sanctions against Russia after annexing Ukraine’s sovereign territory. It is a non-starter for Russia to do so without being bound to account for war crimes in Ukraine.
So they consider their position on sanctions, but Europeans need to find leverage points with Trump. His demand for Ukraine to grant long-term concessions to the US on most of Ukraine’s important minerals as a payment for American past military assistance provides one such opportunity. Europeans have made US to Ukraine’s natural resources as part of a large package deal to protect their collective assets in the future, including European security guarantees and US military backups. Together we were able to propose our own plans for investment.
Trump does not easily offer a “backstop” to help Europeans protect Ukrainian sovereignty. But if it helps protect his investment, he might do so.
