Several Wall Street analysts are seeing a clear winner coming out of President Donald Trump’s new auto toll policy, Tesla. Trump announced Wednesday that all cars not made in the US will be slapped at 25% tariffs starting next week. The news sent shares of major American car producers in diverse directions in Thursday’s deal as Wall Street analyzed the most and most hurting policy changes. So far, several analysts have seen Elon Musk’s electric car giant as a relative beneficiary considering domestic production. Stocks rose modestly after meeting during the session. Simply put, “Tesla wins, Detroit is bleeding,” Bernstein analyst Daniel Roesca wrote in a note to his client on Thursday. Tesla: “Clear Structure Winner” Loesca called Tesla the “Clear Structure Winner” of its policy, adding that it has localized market share and is “better insulation” due to trade risks. Meanwhile, he said Ford and General Motors are seeing a decline in revenue of up to 30% this year before interest and taxes. “For everyone else, this is a margin reset and a true drug of short-term profitability,” he said of companies other than Tesla. UBS analyst Joseph Spack said both Tesla and competitor Libian had risen by more than 7% on Thursday, with the possibility that “better” and “better” could be “better.” TSLA 1D Mountain Tesla, for the day, for others in the industry, Spak said it was “clearly painful” as tariffs take effect. TD Cowen analyst Itay Michael said Tesla’s considerable domestic procurement will help make the company a “relative winner.” This is especially true for Tesla’s Model Y. Tesla’s Model Y competes in the medium-sized crossover segment. This is the category that shows nearly half of all vehicles that have been hit with Levies. Perhaps some of the tariffs will likely be passed on to consumers, making these vehicles even more expensive. Despite profits on Thursday, Tesla stocks fell around 30% this year. Some of the decline stems from political backlash against masks, which are key aid to Trump and act as the face of the president’s government efficiency initiative. Trump said earlier this month that he would buy Tesla at a Musk support show as Tesla declined. But Trump said the billionaire entrepreneur did not advise on car rates due to potential conflicts of interest. The mask has been posted on social media platform X. His company said it has not survived the impact of the policy. “It’s important to note that Tesla is not unharmed here,” Musk wrote. “The impact of tariffs on Tesla remains important.” Still, Wall Street is hoping Tesla shares will move forward, suggesting that LSEG has been voted for a purchase rating and average price target, suggesting that around 18% is up. “Worst Case” scenario? TD Cowen’s Michaeli called Trump’s announcement “close to the worst case results,” comparing it to recent policy expectations. He expects a “significant” early impact on Detroit Big 3. Based on the currently understood policy, he said Ford should be the least exposed in the group, but Stellantis may be the most exposed. UBS’s Spak says it expects car manufacturers to raise prices as a result. For Ford Motors and General Motors, he estimated that if 100% of the cost increase was reduced, the average price tag could rise between $4,000 and $5,000. Analysts pointed out that not all legacy automakers will be attacked equally. For example, Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu listed Ford along with Tesla in the “most shielded” bucket. There are also some disagreements about which companies feel the most pressure. Despite Michaeli saying Stellantis is the most exposed, Bernstein’s Loesca should show “relative resilience” compared to other Detroit big three car makers. Ford shares fell more than 3%, while GM shares fell more than 7%. Stellantis stocks fell by more than 1%. Get tickets for Pro Live Join us on the New York Stock Exchange! An uncertain market? Earn Edge with CNBC Pro Live, the first exclusive event on the historic New York Stock Exchange. Access to expert insights is paramount in today’s dynamic financial situation. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we encourage you to take part in the first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro live event held at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12th. Join ProSCarter Worte, an interactive pro clinic led by Dan Niles and Dan Ives, along with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You will also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other pro subscribers during exciting cocktail hours on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
US President Donald Trump will speak to the media next to Tesla CEO Elon Musk with his son XæA-12 on March 11, 2025 at the White House in Washington, DC.
Kevin Lamarck | Reuters
Several Wall Street analysts are seeing a clear winner coming out of President Donald Trump’s new auto toll policy. Tesla.
