Cryptocurrency analysts are speculating that the long-awaited altcoin season may not be far away, but altcoin season indicators so far paint a different picture.
A “massive liquidity shift” in the second half of this year will lead to a “parabolic pump” for altcoins, predicted crypto analyst Ash Crypto.
Most altcoins have been lackluster this year, even as Bitcoin (BTC) has soared 680% since its November 2022 bear market lows and other major assets like tech stocks and gold have hit record highs.
He said investors are currently only focusing on safe-haven assets this year due to trade tariff concerns and geopolitical tensions.
“Right now, liquidity exists only in low-risk assets, and if you look at 2017 and 2021, bull markets always play out this way.”
However, with several rate cuts and monetary policy easing expected by the Federal Reserve, “liquidity will flow back into risk assets,” the analyst predicted, leading BTC and ether (ETH) to new highs, with altcoins likely to follow suit.
Another analyst, digital asset investor Crypto GEMs, shared a chart highlighting the timing of the US central bank’s last liquidity injection, which marked the beginning of alt season.
Additionally, more than 150 altcoin exchange-traded funds are awaiting SEC approval, which could provide another impetus.
Related: Altcoins usually get dumped hard before alt season: Will history repeat itself?
Altseason index is at bear market low
However, the altcoin season index metrics tell a completely different story, with most of them at bear market lows.
Blockchain Center’s Altseason Index currently stands at 35 out of 100, its lowest level since July.
CoinMarketCap’s altseason gauge is even lower at 24, reporting that it is still “Bitcoin season,” while CryptoRank is also showing a low of 24, with Bitget’s altcoin season index at 30.
Few altcoins boast the best performance
Barring a few outliers such as BNB (BNB) and Hyper Liquid (HYPE), which recently hit new highs, most altcoins are trading at multi-year lows.
However, according to CoinGecko, several stocks have started to move today, with BNB, Solana (SOL), HYPE, Zcash (ZEC), and World Liberty Finance (WLFI) all outperforming the overall market.
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