Bitcoin (BTC) is facing a “unprecedented” US dollar correlation as it offers a $75,000 floor to survey new BTC prices.
In one of the latest analysis on April 18th, network economist Timothy Peterson calculated that BTC/USD could reach $138,000 within the next three months.
BTC’s price odds will prevail over bulls
Bitcoin has navigated very unusual macroeconomic conditions as a result of the ongoing US trade war, but history still provides clues as to where BTC price action will head next.
In Peterson’s case, the US high yield index effective yield is currently above 8% and holds the key.
“This has happened 38 times (monthly data) since 2010,” he summed up.
“After three months: Bitcoin increased by 71%. The median gain was +31%. If it fell, the worst loss was -16%.”
With BTC/USD’s performances distorted upside down like this, Peterson has given hope to those waiting for the greatest rematch ever since January.
“This could put Bitcoin between $75,000 and $138k within 90 days,” he concluded.
Bitcoin must provide a profit of 62% within that period to achieve its maximum level.
As reported by Cointelegraph, Peterson frequently contributed to BTC price forecasts in 2025, one of his own tools, with the lowest price giving him a 95% odds of $69,000 in March.
Bitcoin DXY correlation is negatively inverted
Thanks to US trade tariffs, he turned his attention to the dramatic decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY), and predicted that an unusual positive correlation with BTC would eventually end.
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“This level of BTC-USD correlation is unprecedented. The relationship is not causal, but it reflects the underlying conditions that affect both,” he explained.
“Historically, in 2024, relationships were reversed in 2024 as both assets began to respond to the same macro stressor. Enhanced liquidity, high real ratios, global risk aversion. BTC rises separately when real yields drop.”
DXY continues to fall below the April 18th key 100 mark for each data in CointeLegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, reflecting some of the lowest levels in the last three years.
Nevertheless, it was nevertheless considered that Bitcoin could directly benefit from the weakness of the dollar, in a similar way to the early innings of the 2023 Bull Run.
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.
