Bitcoin (BTC) risks falling into a fresh bear market as a large collection of BTC price indicators has created a “breath of bears”.
During a social media discussion on March 27th, Bitcoin commentators flagged a nasty signal from the Bitcoin Macro Index of Capriol Investments.
Bitcoin Macro Index Slump “Not great,” says creators
On-chain metrics are beginning to lose the edge of the bull market as BTC/USD struggles to return to the area around its highest height ever.
The Bitcoin Macro Index, created by Capriol in 2022, uses machine learning to analyze data from numerous metrics that founder Charles Edwards stated that “there is a strong demonstration of the relative value of Bitcoin throughout the historic cycle.”
“This model only examines on-chain and macromarket data. Uniquely, price data and technical analysis are not considered input to this model,” he explained in an introduction to the tool at the time.
Since late 2023, metrics have been printing lower highs, while prices have printed higher prices, creating “bearish divergence.” While common in previous bull markets, the potential implication is that BTC/USD is already at its long-term peak.
“Not great,” Edwards responded while reposting a print of an index that another user uploaded to X.
“But… when the Bitcoin Macro Index gets positive, I won’t fight it.”
Capriol Bitcoin Macro Index. Source: @a_trade_academy/x
BTC price indicators are struggling to recover
Various analysts have concluded that Bitcoin is suffering from macro turbulence this year.
Related: BTC will not exceed $138,000 in 2025 BITCOIN price forecast market
In one of the posts on this week’s QuickTake blog, Onchain Analytics Platform Cryptoquant looked at four Onchain metrics that are currently in flux.
“All of these metrics suggest that Bitcoin is experiencing significant turbulence in the short to medium term,” said contributor Burak Kesmeci.
“But none of them indicates that Bitcoin has overheated or reached cycle top level.”
Bitcoin IFP Chart (screenshot). Source: Cryptoquant
This list includes the market value of realised value (MVRV) and net modest profit/loss (NUPL), as well as the so-called interchangeable current pulse (IFP) metrics that turned something terrible in February.
To change this, Kesmeci concluded that IFP should exceed the 90-day simple moving average (SMA).
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.
