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Business leaders are hoping for a recession against the United States, which first surged in the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, according to data released Monday.
Less than 30% of CEOs predict either mild or severe recession over the next six months, according to a survey of more than 270 CEOs’ group last week. This was a 46% decline in May and 62% in April.
This month, the CEO’s share said it expects to see some growth in the US economy also exceed 40%. This is almost double the 23%, which made the same forecast in April.
Expectations for flat economic growth have skyrocketed in recent months, up over 30% from 15% in April. It will lead some market participants to question whether “stumbling” (the term used to describe an environment that has stagnated economic growth and sticky inflation) may be on the horizon.
The latest data from the CEO reflects the changing outlook among American leaders as they follow Trump’s evolving tariff policies. Many large corporations remain unchanged in revenue outlook, citing uncertainty about what doesn’t include the president’s final trade policy.
Trump sent financial markets swirling in April after first unveiling a wide range of sudden tax collection plans in many countries and territories that market participants are worried about hindering consumer spending. He suspended many of those duties and immediately suspended, which helped the market recover much of its loss.
The White House is negotiating deals with the country during this grace period and is expected to expire early next month. The Trump administration has announced an agreement with the UK and is holding talks with China in London on Monday.
The story of the recession
The talk of the slowdown has once again become a hot topic in corporate America. A similar iteration of “recession” and words occurred in 150 S&P listing revenue calls this year, about twice the amount seen in the same period in 2024. According to a CNBC analysis of FACTSET data.
“We recognize that radical changes in global trade policy can contribute to broader macroeconomic volatility, including the possibility of leaning certain regions into a recession.” International flavors and fragrancesregarding the company’s revenue call last month.
Businesses are warning that tariffs could potentially increase revenue and that higher prices should be reduced in cost. Some also said taxation has caused a growing fear of recession as it forces consumers to tighten their belts financially.
The University of Michigan’s close-up consumer sentiment index is approaching the lowest level on record as rate announcements rattle Americans every day.
However, a survey of the New York Federal Reserve released Monday shows a brighter picture. Data showed that the average consumer is not worried about inflation after Trump has returned some of his most serious trade plans.
“I think the worst concerns from the macros are, I think, past.” Home Depot CEO Edward Decker said last month. “We went from dynamics near the specific recession and stock market corrections in early April to where today’s stock markets have recovered completely (and) recession expectations have declined in the past month.”
