Important points:
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium flipped to red as BTC price fell below $104,000.
Bitcoin’s RSI hit its lowest since April, suggesting a potential bottom zone.
The 200-day EMA support remains important as there is a risk of BTC capitulating in the near term.
Bitcoin (BTC) extended its recent decline on Friday, falling to $103,500, causing a notable shift in on-chain market sentiment. The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between BTC on Coinbase and other exchanges, has turned red on the hourly chart for the first time in recent weeks.
Earlier this week, BTC attempted to find support around $110,000, supported by steady spot demand from US investors. Coinbase premium soared to 0.18, its highest since March 2024.
However, that short-term confidence faded as the price failed to break above $110,000 on Thursday. Although the hourly premium turned negative, the daily value remains slightly positive, indicating that long-term buying support in the US has not completely disappeared but is currently under stress.
Adding to the bearish pressure, Bitcoin taker sell volume surged to over $4 billion, indicating a wave of sell orders in the market. This move coincides with BTC’s rejection of the short-term holders (STH) realized price near $112,370, which is currently acting as a resistance level.
Historically, this level represents an average cost baseline for recent buyers, meaning continued rejection below it could accelerate a near-term capitulation towards $100,000.
Related: Bitcoin holds $105,000 as US bank stocks recover, gains momentum after Trump ceasefire
Bitcoin reflects the bottom structure from March to April
BTC’s current price behavior closely resembles the March-April lows where a sharp intraday rally wiped out the liquidity that had built over 30 days before a gradual recovery began. This pattern suggested that unless BTC falls decisively below that level, it could retest the $100,000 range without necessarily breaking the broader bullish structure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also fell to its lowest level, comparable to April’s low of 34, after which Bitcoin began to recover within the charts.
An important technical signal to keep an eye on is the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) that BTC has been holding for about 6 months. In the previous cycle, it maintained this trend from October 2024 to March 2024, but temporarily lost the trend during consolidation. This time, the trend line has been maintained from April to October 2025, and the price may lose the trend line in the coming days.
If BTC continues to track the previous fractal, the market could enter a correction phase that will last several weeks. The recovery phase in the first quarter lasted nearly 45-55 days, with the real bottom forming in late April. Applying the same timeline suggests a modest recovery may not materialize until late November or early December.
Cryptocurrency trader Dentoshi echoed this view, saying:
“During this bull market, $BTC consistently bottomed around the 100 EMA for three days, but it took 45 to 96 days to get there.”
Related: Bitcoin ‘bull market is over’, traders warn of 50% drop in BTC price
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading moves involve risk and readers should conduct their own research when making decisions.
