According to Timothy Peterson, author of Metcalfe’s Lage as a model of Metcoin’s value, the current Bitcoin (BTC) bare market is defined as a decline of more than 20% from an all-time high.
Peterson compared the current recession to 10 previous bare markets that occur around once a year, saying that only four bare markets are worse than price drops over the periods, including 2018, 2021, 2022 and 2024.
Analysts predicted that the adoption trends underlying BTC would not sink deeper into the $50,000 price level. However, Peterson also argued that based on momentum, it is unlikely that BTC will fall below $80,000. Analysts added:
“There is a possibility that the slides will continue over the next 30 days, with 20-40% meetings going on after April 15th. You can see that on the charts around 120 days.
Crypto Markets has sparked a rebuttal to US exports following the US president’s tariffs, leading to the fear of a long-term trade war.
Comparison of all bear markets since 2025. Source: Timothy Peterson
Related: Will Bitcoin be $65K? Traders explain why they are still weakening
Investors escape risk-on assets rather than the fear of a trade war
Investor desire for speculative assets is declining due to ongoing trade wars and macroeconomic uncertainty.
GlassNode Hot Supply Metric, a measure of BTC owned within a week, fell from 5.9% in the historic Bull Rally in November 2024 to just 2.3% as of March 20th.
According to Nansen research analyst Nikolai Sondergaard, the crypto market will face trade war pressure until April 2025.
Recent analysis from Cryptoquant also shows that the majority of retailers are already invested in BTC, intimidating large retailers to inject fresh capital into the market and increase prices in the short term.
The trade war also questioned the story of Bitcoin’s safe haven, as the prices of decentralized assets, along with other risks and speculative assets, collapsed over tariff headlines.
Magazine: Bitcoiner is “all” on Trump since Bitcoin ’24, but at risk
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.
