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Millions of workers left their jobs during the “major resignation” of the Covid-19 pandemic, but economic insecurity and uncertainty have once again transformed the tide of the labour market into a “great stay.”
Economists coined the term, with fewer employees leaving their jobs and fewer employers hiring or firing new workers.
Nella Richardson, ADP chief economist, told CNBC “I had this ‘big resignation’ just a few years ago.” But now, she pointed out, “the workers aren’t going anywhere.”
“They have dream jobs. This is probably home and there are probably big pay picks… And what you actually see in the data is a very low turnover. This is very unusual in the US,” she added.
“I call it a ‘great stay.’ People continue to go away.
Similarly, Richardson said companies are putting their employment decisions on hold “not because they are trying to reduce their employees, but because they are uncertain about the path ahead.”
Richardson said he described the trend as a “employment-free, no fishing market,” but while the momentum is clearly slowing in terms of employment, our first unemployed person, layoff agents — remained close to historic lows.
“We think it’s non-layoffs for now.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the shift from “a massive resignation” is dramatic. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the COVID-19 pandemic has ended the longest employment and economic expansion in US history, with about 5.5 million people quitting their jobs from 47.8 million in 2021.
However, there are signs that the US job market is cooling down. In July, non-farm payroll growth occurred at 73,000, slower than expected, the latest data from August 1 showed, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
The weak report could provide an incentive to lower interest rates the next time the US Federal Reserve meets in September, the economist said.
UK looking at similar shifts
The same trend was seen in the UK, where the number of job disability increased to a record 1,172,000 between August and October 2021, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. By the second quarter of 2022, the total number of employment vacancy reached 1,295,000, ONS said.
According to ONS, the latest UK employment data released in mid-August, fast-forwarded to 2025 and released in mid-August, showed that the country’s labour market has fallen from 5.8% to 718,000 between July and July between July and July, and from 718,000 to 718,000.
“Feedback from our vacancy survey suggests that some companies may not recruit new workers or replace leaving workers,” he added.
Shoppers will pass along High Street in the UK on Wednesday, April 16th, 2025.
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According to the ONS, the UK’s economic inactivity rate was estimated at 21% between April and June, reflecting the number of people aged 16-64 on work.
“The employment of businesses has been continuously declining over the past three years, with recent DIP being added in part to rising taxes, minimum wage increases and increased labor costs due to overall economic uncertainty,” said Monica George Michel, associate economist at the National Economic and Social Research Think Tank.
“On the other hand, lower inactivity and increasing unemployment have led to an increase in the supply of labor.”
Neil Carberry, CEO of the Recruitment and Employment Federation, told CNBC that the UK is also seeing trends in “big stays” as well.
“The truth is, employment is born from businesses, and the engine of job creation is growth…unless they get a business in the UK where they want to hire you, you won’t go anywhere,” he told CNBC.
“At this point, it’s very strange in the market. Permanent adoption has been low for a few years and it hasn’t returned completely (since Covid-19), but the business is sitting there with its hands on the buttons.
– CNBC’s Jeffcox and Greg Iaklch contributed reporting to this story
