Global leadership will be tested in 2025

Hello. Welcome to weekday business. At a time when corporate, economic, and political diaries are as empty as advent calendars, this newsletter’s tradition is to look forward to the year ahead. So buckle up.

The person to watch in 2025 is Donald Trump, who was named the FT’s 2024 Person of the Year and will return to the White House after the inauguration ceremony on January 20th.

The president-elect’s threats to impose tariffs, carry out mass deportations and cut taxes and regulations could have far-reaching effects on the economy, investors and analysts say. Some economists worry that these policies could lead to higher inflation, lower growth and more volatility.

The prospect of a fundamental overhaul of policy is already looming over the Federal Reserve. The U.S. central bank cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in December, the third consecutive cut, but forecasts show that the number of rate cuts in 2025 will be half as many as expected in September. This is already disrupting the market.

There are also signs of political change in Europe’s largest economy. German voters will head to the polls on February 23 after Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s three-party coalition collapsed under the strain of Germany’s economic and security challenges. Germany’s economy is at risk of contracting in 2025 and the country is in shock after a Saudi attack on a Christmas market in Magdeburg left five people dead and more than 200 injured. Click here to learn about the country’s political parties’ main campaign promises.

Elsewhere in Europe, leadership changes may occur. France’s next presidential election is more than two years away, but there is growing speculation that incumbent Emmanuel Macron may resign before his term ends, according to FT columnist Gideon Lachman. There is.

Another year of war begins in the Middle East and Ukraine. This means Russian President Vladimir Putin will once again be at the center of the news. This Tuesday marks 25 years since Boris Yeltsin took over as acting president of Russia, and May 7 next year will mark the quarter-century anniversary of his first inauguration.

In the UK, this year will test some of the Labor government’s election promises. Prime Minister Rachel Reeves will come under increasing pressure to prove her party’s policies are driving economic growth. The introduction of VAT on private school tuition fees will come into force on January 1st, and from April 1st private schools will no longer be entitled to claim charity fee relief. It is expected that many parents will be angry.

The outlook for the UK economy is grim. The Bank of England warned last month that stubborn inflation would prevent it from cutting interest rates quickly. Traders expect the central bank to cut rates by two quarter-point points next year, up from four cuts expected by the market as recently as October.

Corporate news will be driven by themes of artificial intelligence and green technology, likely increasing tensions between the West and China.

Electric cars are expected to outsell the first cars with internal combustion engines in China in 2025, according to data collected by the FT from investment banks and research groups. One of the good themes for next year (in my opinion) is that while the hype around AI is likely to die down, a colleague of mine based in the US says that companies will see big (if unproven) gains in AI adoption. The technology boom will continue because it claims to be profitable. Richard Waters on the West Coast. Click here for his four AI predictions for next year.

Read a month-by-month breakdown of 2025’s major events and anniversaries.

One more thing. . .

What are your predictions for the next 12 months? Email jonathan.moules@ft.com. Or, if you’re reading this from your inbox, click reply.

Regular service of “The Week Ahead” returns next Sunday, with my colleague Harvey Nriapia returning to the writer’s chair. In the meantime, we wish you all a great New Year and we’ll be back in January.

Major global, economic and corporate reports

Here’s a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data in 2025.

January

EU: Poland assumes rotating EU presidency on January 1st

United States: Donald Trump will be officially inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States at a ceremony in Washington on January 20th.

Switzerland: A five-day gathering of world political and business leaders will begin on January 20 at the Alpine ski resort of Davos. The theme of this year’s event is “Collaboration for the Intelligent Age”

China: Lunar New Year. The Year of the Wood Snake begins on January 29th. In Chinese culture, snakes symbolize wisdom and agility, and trees represent growth, flexibility, and tolerance.

UK: January 31st, 5th anniversary of Brexit. Declaration on safety and security for goods imported into the UK from the EU comes into force. Also, from January 1st, VAT will be introduced on tuition fees at private schools.

February

march

March 18 marks the 60th anniversary of the first extravehicular activity.

5th anniversary since the World Health Organization officially declared the novel coronavirus a pandemic on March 11th

US: Latest deadline for new funding deal to avoid government shutdown is March 14th

UK: Energy regulator Ofgem will introduce new common minimum capital requirements for domestic suppliers on 31 March to strengthen their resilience to sudden changes in market conditions and ensure levels of capital that can absorb market shocks. will be introduced.

April

April 3rd marks the 15th anniversary of iPad release.

UK: Removal of private school status for charity fee relief will come into effect on April 1st

United States: April 19, 1775, the year before the Declaration of Independence was signed, marks the 250th anniversary of the beginning of the American Revolutionary War, also known as the War of Independence, with the battles of Concord and Lexington.

May

UK: UK will hold local elections on May 1st

Special VE Day event commemorating the 80th anniversary of Germany’s formal and unconditional surrender at the end of World War II on May 7th

Albania: Parliamentary elections will be held on May 11th

Philippines: Local and national elections will be held on May 12th

June

UK: The sale of disposable e-cigarettes will be banned from June 1, as confirmed by the government in October last year. NHS says long-term risks of e-cigarettes remain unknown

Burundi: Parliamentary and local elections will be held on June 5th

July

EU: Denmark assumes rotating EU presidency on July 1st

Switzerland: Euro 2025 women’s football tournament begins on July 2nd

UK: As part of the government’s plan to renationalise the rail network, rail passenger services between London and Essex will return to public management as the C2C contract with the Department for Transport expires on 20 July.

August

VJ Day has special meaning not only because it marks the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, but also because it is also the 80th anniversary of the first atomic bomb being dropped on Hiroshima on August 6th. Japan surrendered on August 15th.

80th Anniversary of George Orwell’s Animal Farm, published on August 17th

september

UK: Defense and Security Equipment International, the world’s largest fully integrated defense and security exhibition, will be held at the ExCel Center in London from 9th to 12th September. The biennial event usually sparks outdoor protests by activists opposed to military weapons sales.

Russia: Local elections begin on September 12th

Malawi: Presidential and parliamentary elections will be held on September 16th

October

november

United States: New Jersey and Virginia will hold gubernatorial elections on November 4th. The respective incumbent governors, Gov. Phil Murphy and Gov. Glenn Youngkin, are term limited and cannot seek reelection.

UK: November 8th marks the 60th anniversary of the abolition of the death penalty.

Germany: 80th anniversary of the Nuremberg trials for Nazi war criminals that began on November 20th

South Africa: G20 Leaders’ Summit to be held in Johannesburg from November 22nd to 23rd, attended by heads of government from 19 major industrialized countries, the EU and the African Union.

Honduras: Presidential, parliamentary, and local elections will be held on November 30th.

december

The US will take over the G20 presidency for one year from December 1st

Chile: Presidential election run-off will be held on December 14th

UK: December 21st marks 70 years since Cardiff became the capital of Wales

December 24th marks the 100th anniversary of the publication of the first Winnie the Pooh book by British author AA Milne.