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A guide to what the 2024 US election means for Washington and the world.
When Donald Trump first won the White House in 2016, Silicon Valley recoiled in horror. His blatant tirade against xenophobia and liberal piety was an affront to many of the ultra-liberal values of an industry built in the San Francisco Bay Area.
On the business side, there was good reason to be concerned. The populism promoted by President Trump was explicitly opposed to the internationalist free trade policies that have given American technology companies global hegemony since the mid-1990s. The prospect of trade tensions and frayed alliances abroad and immigration restrictions at home promised a different world.
Trump 2.0 is on the horizon, and many of the same concerns smolder, but the technology landscape and its responses are changing. Compared to the shockwave that galvanized opponents last time around, heightened expectations for his victory have dampened anger among tech companies, which are dominated by Democrats.
Eight years later, a conflict with China has fractured global tech markets and shaken up electronics supply chains. Big Tech’s wealth and power have exploded, drawing attention to antitrust violations. AI is putting the industry on the brink of the greatest opportunity since the internet.
Then, frustrated with the Biden administration’s perceived overreach and “woke” liberal forces, a small but vocal band led by Elon Musk challenged Silicon Valley’s dominant political culture. These views are widely shared, if not often expressed publicly.
There is currently a sense of both risk and opportunity in the technology sector. Navigating the new administration’s sometimes contradictory impulses, along with Trump’s frequent reversals and penchant for personal vendettas, will be key.
Consider Biden’s proposal to provide billions of dollars in subsidies under the CHIP Act to bring more chip manufacturing back to the United States.
The target is one Trump stock. But the president-elect likes nothing more than to undo his predecessor’s signature accomplishments. He recently complained about the need for subsidies, arguing that his promised import tariffs would give semiconductor manufacturers all the incentive they need to move manufacturing to the United States.
Most of Mr. Biden’s subsidies have been promised but not yet finalized, so the battle for them before he takes over is likely to get heated.
Let’s figure it out pic.twitter.com/XvYFtDrhRm
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 6, 2024
President Trump’s threat of sweeping tariffs could further disrupt global electronics supply chains already facing geopolitical and pandemic upheavals.
As many have suggested, this could be a negotiating ploy to force concessions from trading partners. If so, it would strengthen one of the key priorities for technology industry leaders. The goal is to get the new president to listen to their claims for special treatment that exempts them from their own company’s interests.
But more generally, increased competition from China and expectations that the Trump administration will reduce antitrust pressure are boosting industry expectations.
Big technology companies have long advocated for greater regulatory freedom to ensure they stay ahead of China in key technologies. They plan to enhance this further in the future, especially when it comes to AI.
If this sounds like a path to unlimited freedom for Big Tech, the relationship with the new White House is likely to remain shaped by caution on both sides. Anti-conservative bias and Republican claims of “woke AI” were rampant during the election.
When dealing with President Trump’s White House, nothing beats a personal touch. Other tech industry leaders are riveted on Elon Musk, whose decision to go all-in on the Trump campaign this week paid off.
President Trump’s promise to take a leading role in cutting costs across the federal government could put Tesla and SpaceX chief executives in positions of power over regulators with whom they have repeatedly clashed in the past. There is.
Mr. Musk is attempting the ultimate chaos: endangering the U.S. government itself.
When it became clear this week that President Trump was on his way to victory, Musk posted a mock-up photo of himself carrying a sink into the Oval Office. This is an echo of the day he took control of Twitter.
It would be easy to conclude that he was overreaching, and that his influence would not be as deep or long-lasting. But at least in the shadow of victory, the ties between the US president-elect and the world’s richest man appear to be very close.
richard.waters@ft.com
