Traders in the Calci forecast market have put a 61% chance of a 2025 US recession at 61% following the swept customs order signed by President Donald Trump on April 2.
Kalshi uses two business quarters of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the standard standard for recession, as reported by the US Department of Commerce.
The odds of the US recession on the forecast platform have almost doubled since March 20th, reflecting the odds of the current 2025 US recession for Polymarket, where traders on the platform are currently 60%.
The 2025 macroeconomic outlook has deteriorated rapidly following President Donald Trump’s sweeping fee order and capital market sales, sparking long-term fears about the bear market.
The odds for the 2025 US recession are the top 60% of the calci forecast market. Source: Kalshi
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Trump’s executive order throws markets in confusion
The US President’s executive order established a baseline tariff rate of 10% for all countries and a different “mutual” tariff rate for trading partners with existing tariffs on US imports.
Trump’s announcement sparked an immediate stock market sale, wiping out shareholder value of more than $5 trillion in days.
The fear of a recession continues to rise as market analysts warn of a potentially prolonged trade war that will negatively affect global markets and curb risky assets prices, including cryptocurrencies.
Meanwhile, President Trump expressed confidence that tariffs will strengthen the US economy in the long term and correct trade imbalances.
“The market is going to be booming,” the president said on April 3, describing the current market divestment as a predicted part of the process.
The sale of shares continues as the shares reduces trillions in shareholder value. Source: TradingView
Asset Manager Anthony Pipriano recently speculated that President Trump intentionally crashed the market in order to cut interest rates.
Pulliano cited the 10-year US Treasury bond cuts as evidence that the president’s strategy to force recession into action is working.
2010 U.S. Treasury interest rates fell from about 4.66% in January 2025 to just 4.00% on April 5th.
“This will be the best time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates,” Trump wrote in the April 4th Truth Social Post.
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