China is trying to challenge the United States in the field of artificial intelligence. The Chinese tech giant has unveiled its own AI model.
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China may surpass the United States in the race to develop artificial intelligence that is smarter than humans, but such groundbreaking technology also risks weakening the ruling Communist Party’s hold on the world’s second-largest economy.
That’s the view of renowned AI scientist Max Tegmark, who told CNBC that artificial general intelligence (AGI) is closer than we think, and that the United States is competing to build the smartest AI. He said the story of the geopolitical battle between China and China is a “suicidal race.”
Although there is no single definition of AGI, it is widely interpreted to refer to AI that can outperform humans.
Applications like ChatGPT, which allow users to ask chatbots for answers, have exploded in popularity. However, many AI companies are racing to develop the next level of AI with human-level intelligence.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman says AGI could be achieved by 2025. Other leading figures in the technology industry also think AGI is near, but many others believe true AGI is still very far away.
In addition to competition between technology companies, there is also a geopolitical battle between the United States and China for dominance in areas from AI to chips. While this is often portrayed as a race to be the first to adopt the latest technology, Tegmark said this is not the correct framework.
“I think of this battle, this geopolitical battle to first build AGI, as the ‘Hopium War,'” Tegmark said in an interview with CNBC last month. “I call this the ‘Hopium War’ because it is fueled by the delusional hope that AGI can be controlled.”
Tegmark, director of the Future of Life Institute think tank, wrote a letter last year to the Institute for AI, calling on it to suspend development of advanced AI systems. The letter was signed by key technical experts including: tesla CEO Elon Musk. Tegmark’s concern is that AI is advancing rapidly with few guardrails, and there is no way to control it if it starts taking on humans.
“We’re much closer to building AGI than we are to figuring out how to control it, and that means the AGI race is not an arms race but a suicidal race,” Tegmark said. .
Is China concerned about AGI?
Tegmark said China has little incentive to build AGI. The AI scientist recalled what Elon Musk told him about a “high-level meeting” the Tesla president had with Chinese government officials in early 2023. Musk told the Chinese government that once AGI is built, China will “no longer be dominated.” It’s a Communist Party, but it’s a super-intelligence agency,” Tegmark said.
“[Musk]had a very strong reaction, some of whom really hadn’t thought about it, and then less than a month later, China came out with its first AI regulations. ,” Tegmark said, referring to new regulations governing generative AI. .
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not comment on the anecdote. CNBC also reached out to Tesla for a response from Musk.
“The US does not need to persuade China not to build AGI. Even if the US were not there, Beijing would have an incentive not to build AGI because Beijing wants to take the lead.” said Tegmark.
“The last thing they want is to lose that control.”
China’s approach to AI
AI is a strategic priority for the Chinese government. Japan’s largest companies such as alibabawith Huawei tencent We are developing our own AI models. The features of these models are also evolving.
China was also one of the first countries in the world to introduce regulations regarding various aspects of AI. The country’s internet is heavily censored, blocking any information deemed to be contrary to the Chinese government’s ideology. OpenAI’s ChatGPT is banned, and it is well known that Chinese chatbots do not answer questions related to politics or topics deemed sensitive by the Communist Party.
The country’s approach to AI is therefore also an attempt to promote innovation while balancing its own national interests. Analysts say China is likely to pursue a similar approach when it comes to AGI.
“We can’t count on China limiting its own AI capabilities because such technology could threaten party control,” said Kendra Schaefer, a partner at consultancy Trivium China.The same goes for the internet. “There were many predictions, but they all turned out to be wrong.” ” he told CNBC.
“China will seek to control AGI while creating a technology regulatory mechanism that limits what AGI is allowed to do within the country.”
US-China AI battle
Despite Tegmark’s view that the race to build AGI is a “hopium war,” geopolitics remains central between the United States and China when it comes to technology development.
“China is now viewing AI with the dual lens of geopolitical power and domestic growth,” said Abishur Prakash, geopolitical strategist and founder of Toronto-based strategic advisory firm The Geopolitical Business. speaks.
“China wants to use AI to change the balance of power around the world, including creating new export models,” Prakash told CNBC. “We want to strengthen the economy in new ways,” he said.
The United States has pursued policies that seek to limit China’s access to key technologies, primarily semiconductors such as those designed by China. Nvidiarequired for training more advanced AI models. China responded by trying to build its own chip industry.
Will the US and China partner on AI rules?
Technologists are warning of several risks and dangers if AGI does come to fruition. One theory is that without guardrails, AI will be able to improve itself and design new systems on its own.
Tegmark believes that such risks are realized by both the United States and China, and that both governments need to develop rules for AI safety separately.
“My optimistic path forward, therefore, is that the United States and China will work to prevent their own companies from doing harm or building out-of-control AGI, not to appease rival superpowers. , unilaterally imposing national security standards simply to protect themselves,” Tegmark said.
“But once that happens, it’s going to be a very interesting stage where the U.S. and China say, ‘Wait, how can we guarantee that North Korea won’t build AGI or anyone else?’ And then , the US and China now have an incentive to push forward with the rest of the world and hope they join the AGI moratorium. ”
In fact, governments are already looking to work together to consider how to create regulations and frameworks around AI. Last year, the UK hosted an AI Safety Summit, with the US and China also in attendance, to discuss potential guardrails surrounding the technology.
However, regulations and rules regarding AI are currently fragmented. This year, the European Union enacted the AI Act, the first major law governing this technology globally. China has its own rules, but many other countries have not yet moved to enact regulations.
Tegmark’s desire to align AI safety front and center is echoed by others.
“When the risks of competition are greater than the rewards, countries would ideally be incentivized to band together and mutually self-regulate,” said Trivium China’s Schaefer.
“Indeed, some Chinese policymakers have advocated establishing an international governing body, such as the International Atomic Energy Agency under the United Nations, to pre-empt that potential problem, so that China’s “There is a desire on the part to establish a global governing body,” she said. Said.
