President Joe Biden holds up a copy of the Republican Party’s fiscal year 2024 budget as he speaks about Bidennomics and Republican economic policy during an event at Prince George’s Community College on September 14, 2023 in Largo, Maryland, United States.
Kyle Mazza | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
With the economy posting strong GDP growth, the labor market resilient, and inflation and gas prices plummeting across the country, one of the early challenges in President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign is There was a disconnect between economic progress and the outlook of the American people. America’s small business owners on Main Street across the country can be added to the constituency where President Biden is struggling to sell his message of “Bidenomics.”
President Biden’s approval rating among small business owners has hit an all-time low, with a net approval rating of 30, according to the CNBC/SurveyMonkey Small Business Survey. Measured from his first day in office, the president’s approval rating has fallen 13 percentage points from 43. Percentages for Q1 2021. Business owners who strongly disapprove of his actions as president (56%) far outnumber those who strongly support them. (13%).
The latest data from a survey of more than 2,000 small business owners conducted by SurveyMonkey for CNBC from November 16 to 21 shows that Biden’s approval rating has hit a new low, with former President This is in line with recent research by NBC News and others that hypothesized that the United States would recontest in the election. Donald Trump has an advantage in battleground states.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen appeared on CNBC after a recent NBC News poll found that nearly 60% of registered voters disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy, which remains high. They discussed the realities underlying the negative economic outlook, citing declining food and rent prices. Even if inflation has fallen from its peak. “I think we’ve made a lot of progress in getting inflation under control, but Americans are finding that things are more expensive than they used to be,” he said on Monday’s “Squawk Box.”
Let’s be clear: The small business community’s thinking is heavily influenced by political partisanship, and it’s a demographic that has historically skewed conservative. Only 7% of Republicans have a positive review of Biden, compared to 85% of Democrats. The role of partisanship in financial results extends to pressing issues such as the outlook for the holiday season, with 37% of Republican business owners expecting a worse sales season than last year, compared to 15% of Democratic business owners. It was.
Support for Biden within the Democratic Party is mixed
Even among Democrats, support for Biden is mixed. The number of people who said they “strongly approve” of Biden’s actions as president (44%) narrowly exceeded the number of people who said they “somewhat approve” (42%). The largest group of business owners who identify as Democrats (48%) say the economy is good, while a total of 40% of Democrats view the current economy as fair (29%) or bad ( 11%). And, generally speaking, Democrats are less likely to say they would do more to help small business owners (69%) than Republicans (86%) who say the same about Republicans.
Among the key independents, small business voters remain close to Republican in their views, with just 26% supporting Biden, compared to independents who strongly disapprove of Biden (48%) and those who strongly support him (5%). %). Biden still has time to gain support among self-employed workers, with just 13% saying they have already decided on a candidate, and nearly half (45%) saying they have already decided on a candidate, according to the survey. %) said they currently have no hope.
Business confidence rises slightly along with sales, employment outlook stable
The survey found that negative views of Biden come amid a rebound in overall small business confidence, which rose to 46 in the fourth quarter, matching the highest level reached during Biden’s presidency. , up from an all-time low in 2019. The index returned to 42 in the third quarter. Confidence, especially among Biden supporters, has also rebounded from a notable decline last quarter. It is also notable for its evaluation of political and economic views. Small business confidence among respondents who do not support Biden reached an all-time high in this survey during Biden’s term, with an index score of 40 in the fourth quarter. Regardless of their political leanings, small business owners are more likely to rate the current state of their businesses as “good” or at least “fair” than “poor.”
Managers’ forecasts for sales and employment are, at worst, leaning toward optimism. 19% of Republican small business owners and 20% of independents say the economy is in bad shape. Similarly, minority small business owners, across party lines, are more likely to expect revenue and staffing levels to decline over the next 12 months and, in the worst case, more likely to expect a stable outlook for both sales and employment. is much higher.
Inflation and interest rates continue to impact the Main Street landscape
Surveys show that inflation and interest rates remain the main reasons why Biden is struggling to win support from the small business community. After the most aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes in decades, many small businesses are facing double-digit loan rates if they can access loans even in a tougher banking and credit environment.
And even though all major inflation data point to significant progress by the Fed in bringing prices under control, large businesses are far less likely to benefit immediately from input price declines. Small businesses lack confidence in the face of inflation. The outlook is for a possible resurgence of inflation, which has been rising among consumers in recent months even as prices have fallen.
Despite a recent report showing that both consumer and wholesale prices have fallen to multi-year lows, a majority of small business owners say inflation has not peaked. 70% say prices will continue to rise, including 43% of Democrats who hold this view.
Seventy percent of small business owners, including more than half of Democrats, say they are still experiencing rising costs of goods, and 42% say wages are still rising.
Sixty-six percent of Republican employers and 62% of Democratic employers said they had offered wage increases in the past three months to attract workers.
