During his first presidential campaign in 2015, Donald Trump accused Mexico of stealing American jobs while exporting drug traffickers and rapists. But five years later, he renewed the treaty binding the two countries’ economies and called his Mexican counterpart “a wonderful person.”
Mexican business leaders felt they had weathered the initial Trump storm relatively well. Some believe that President Claudia Sheinbaum could follow her predecessor, Andres Manuel López Obrador’s strategy, of not criticizing President Trump and giving him what he wants on immigration.
But the second Trump administration poses far more serious challenges for Mexico, the United States’ largest trading partner. Business leaders and bilateral relations experts are concerned that the new Sheinbaum administration is not in a position to successfully navigate the relationship.
Trump will be a stronger president this time around, likely to win majorities in both houses of Congress and determined to force tougher negotiations with his weaker southern neighbor, which is suffering from drug-related violence and slowing economic growth. Dew.
“It’s much more difficult to deal with Trump, who has doubled down. . . . He’s a bully and (Sheinbaum) is an inexperienced national politician,” said Andrés Rosenthal, Mexico’s former deputy foreign minister. . “It seems like the relationship is going to be lopsided, with the United States constantly demanding more from Mexico, but Mexico being unable to commit or even make major changes.”
President Trump’s campaign threats – blanket tariffs, forcing American companies to bring production back home, mass deportation of approximately 11 million illegal immigrants, designation of drug cartels as terrorist organizations – are disproportionate to Mexico. It will be a big blow.
About half of the undocumented immigrants in the United States are Mexican, Mexico is home to two of the world’s largest and most feared drug cartels, and the country relies on the U.S. market for 83 percent of its exports.
Mr. Trump will be one of the biggest challenges for Mr. Sheinbaum, a left-wing supporter and scientist. Mr. Sheinbaum’s academic background and formal public demeanor are little different from the former New York real estate mogul’s brazen past.
Mexico’s first female president has said little so far about how she plans to deal with Trump, other than to say there is “no reason to be concerned” about the “good relations” between the two countries.
Her predecessor and leader, López Obrador, had an unexpectedly strong personal relationship with President Trump. Despite their ideological differences, they shared a preference for an authoritarian populist, nationalist style of government and transactional diplomacy.
President López Obrador has agreed to deploy the military-led National Guard to cut off migration routes and bring back third-country migrants waiting for their U.S. asylum claims to be approved, while President Trump has closed borders, raised tariffs and He withdrew his threat of independence. Pay for the border wall.
A similar relationship continued under President Joe Biden, with the United States avoiding public criticism of Mexico’s rampant drug violence and López Obrador’s attacks on democratic institutions in exchange for cooperation in curbing immigration. .
Arturo Salcan, a former Mexican ambassador to the U.S. and a Washington-based consultant, said Sheinbaum is probably a more ideological figure than López Obrador, but “more importantly, he’s not an extreme figure like Donald Trump.” “It’s about how a man who despises women should interact with the first female president.” of Mexico.”
Some content could not be loaded. Please check your internet connection or browser settings.
The private sector and currency investors remain hopeful of a repeat of the romance between Trump and López Obrador, with the peso falling less sharply this week than when Trump was first elected. One bank executive said most of his big clients in Mexico want Mr. Trump to win, hoping that the Republicans’ trade war with China will encourage more U.S. companies to invest south of the border. He said he was there.
“Whether we like it or not, we are interdependent,” says Antonio Ortiz Mena, founder of AOM Advisors and a former diplomat. “Mexico is smarter than[people think]and has more market leverage and co-production leverage.”
But cooperation in the fight against drug cartels has recently hit an all-time low, as U.S. companies complain of a deteriorating business environment and Mexico ignores U.S. concerns about far-reaching national reforms to Mexico. Patience toward Mexico has been waning in the U.S. capital in recent years. Judiciary.
Washington observers say the country lacks a powerful friend on Capitol Hill who can fend off hostile Congressional moves. Mr. Sheinbaum has not yet named an ambassador to the United States.
“We don’t know if the situation in 2024 will be the same as in 2018,” said Martha Bárcena, who served as Mexico’s ambassador to the United States during the first Trump administration. “We’re seeing more changes in public opinion in the United States, where they see Mexico less as a friend and more as a national security threat.”
The Mexican leader’s far-left credentials also make it unlikely that she will be liked by President Trump. Sheinbaum last month did not deny allegations that Colombian President Gustavo Petro was a former member of the now-defunct M-19 guerrilla movement in the 1980s and had recently sent oil aid to Cuba’s communist government. .
Bárcena said President Trump’s “policy toward Latin America will be controlled by Cuban Americans in Florida.” “They won’t be happy with Mexico giving oil to Cuba and supporting (Venezuela President Nicolas) Maduro. . . . That will also be a major friction point.”
Regarding bilateral relations, a review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement negotiated during Trump’s first term is imminent.
“Trump has already linked trade and immigration during the campaign, threatening to use economic leverage to limit the flow of migrants through Mexico,” said Eric Farnsworth, vice president of the Council of American States Business Lobby in Washington. ” he said.
“Scheinbaum has decided to either resist this approach or… to accommodate U.S. priorities. A review of the USMCA is mandated in 2026, and the stakes are very high.” .”
Data Visualization (Amy Borrett)
