Record-breaking Black Friday has arrived

Hello. Welcome to weekday business. Or, if you’re reading this in the United States, welcome to the next three business days. Enjoy your Thanksgiving!

Of course, many of us see a connection to America’s long holiday given the worldwide spread of the Black Friday phenomenon, traditionally associated with shopping after the Thanksgiving turkey has been consumed. Probably.

Consultancy Bain estimates that U.S. retail sales from Black Friday to Cyber ​​Monday could reach a record $75 billion. PwC’s Bean Counter predicts sales of £7.1bn in the UK market and record-breaking sales across the Atlantic. Photos of rugby scrum scenes will no doubt be broadcast in shopping centres. But experts including EY and consumer behavior experts Sarkana say the reality is likely to be more online shopping and more people waiting for a better deal as retailers become more desperate to move stock. states.

Besides shopping, another important event on the British calendar is Friday’s parliamentary vote on the assisted dying bill, proposed by Labor MP Kim Leadbeater as a private member’s bill. Approval of this highly controversial bill would be a major change for this country. If rejected, the argument dies (for now). If you would like to learn more, I recommend my colleague Laura Hughes’ article on the myriad logical and ethical questions this problem raises.

Ireland will hold a general election on Friday, but on the surface, little will change, with a new coalition government led by Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. This will be a record fourth term for FG, but the question is whether it will be bigger than FF and therefore ‘New Energy’ Mr Simon Harris will return as Chief Taoiseach. Then there’s the question of how well independents will fare. This month’s Irish Times poll of voters found that independents were the only people who outperformed the poll’s margin of error.

Earnings season is coming to an end, but other company news continues to fill the diary.

Barclays will on Monday begin a court appeal against a £50m fine imposed by the Financial Conduct Authority over its 2008 funding deal with Qatar.

On Tuesday, troubled clothing retailer Boohoo plans to issue new ordinary shares on AIM, a move that is unlikely to change much, but is a move that is unlikely to change much for shareholder Frasers Group and its outspoken boss Mike Ashley. This could be a new moment that shakes the cage. Boohoo’s share price has lost more than 90 per cent of its value since its peak in June 2020, buoyed by a boom in online shopping during the pandemic. It’s been almost continuously downhill ever since.

Minutes from the last Fed rate-setting meeting and revised US third-quarter GDP figures are expected to be released before US markets are closed on Thursday and Friday for Thanksgiving. Fed officials have already cut rates twice this year and are debating whether to do so again at their last meeting in December. Chairman Jay Powell recently reiterated that given the underlying strength of the economy, the central bank is “in no hurry” to cut interest rates to a level that would throttle growth.

Just because America is on vacation doesn’t mean the world stops spinning, or indeed growing. India, France and Canada will release quarterly GDP estimates on Friday, a day after Germany, which last week revised down its GDP growth forecast, releases its inflation rate. Further details on these and other corporate and economic items are discussed below.

One more thing. . .

Saturday is St Andrew’s Day in Scotland, and this year it has been chosen as the day to hold a memorial service for former First Minister Alex Salmond, who died of a heart attack last month, at St Giles Cathedral in Edinburgh. Whatever your views on this man, it’s hard to deny his immense influence on Scottish politics over the past 40 years. It’s also an excuse to read or reread my colleague Mure Dickie’s excellent FT obituary.

Major economic and corporate reports

Here’s a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week:

Monday

Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Claire Lombardelli speaks at the 3rd Bank of England Watchers Conference

London court begins hearing appeal on behalf of Barclays

Germany: November If Business Environment Survey

Results: Agilent Technologies Q4, Bath & Body Works Q3, Kingfisher Q3 Trading Update, Zoom Q3

Tuesday

Boohoo new ordinary shares are scheduled to be registered and begin trading on AIM

United States: The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee were released.

Results: Analog Devices Q4, AO World HY, Autodesk Q3, Best Buy Q3, Compass Group FY, Cooperative Bank Q3, Cranswick HY, CrowdStrike Q3, Dell. Technologies 3rd Quarter, Halford HY, HP 4th Quarter, Manchester United 1st Quarter, Renewal Year, Top Styles Year, Urban Outfitters 3rd Quarter

Wednesday

New Zealand: Interest rate determination

US: Third quarter revised GDP and October durable goods orders

Results: easyJet FY, Johnson Matthey HY, Nationwide Building Society HY, Pets at Home HY

Thursday

EU: European Central Bank General Assembly

Germany: Preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) inflation data for November

South Korea: Interest rate determination

America: Thanksgiving. market is closed

Results: Dr Martens HY, Energean trading and operations updates, James Latham HY, Tullow Oil trading and operations updates.

Friday

Canada: Q3 GDP estimates

EU: ECB November Consumer Expectations Survey

France: November CPI and HICP inflation data and third quarter final GDP estimates

Germany: November unemployment rate

India: 2nd quarter GDP figures

UK: Bank of England Financial Stability Report

US: Financial markets close early after Thanksgiving

world events

Finally, we’ll summarize other events and milestones from this week.

Monday

Netherlands: The 29th Conference of the Parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention begins in The Hague and will run until Friday.

UK: CBI annual conference to be held in London

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

USA: 98th Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York. Famous for its giant inflatable balloons and marching bands that parade through Manhattan

Friday

Black Friday is a traditional observance that kicks off the Christmas shopping season in the United States the day after Thanksgiving, but it is now being used by retailers around the world as an excuse to launch sales on their products.

Italy: CGIL and UIL union members plan eight-hour general strike to protest Meloni government’s budget proposal

Ireland: Parliamentary elections

UK: Labor MP Kim Leadbeater’s private member’s bill on assisted dying in England and Wales receives second reading in Parliament.

Saturday

Former British Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s 150th birthday celebrations were held at Blenheim Palace in Oxfordshire.

Iceland: parliamentary elections

UK: Public memorial service for former Prime Minister Alex Salmond. First Minister John Swinney is expected to attend, along with representatives of Scotland’s other political parties.

Sunday

First day of Advent and first day of meteorological winter in the Northern Hemisphere

25 years since Human Genome Project scientists announced the complete sequencing of the DNA that makes up human chromosome 22 – the first fully sequenced human chromosome

Austria: An OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting will be held in Vienna, including 13 OPEC member countries and non-OPEC countries such as Russia, and discussions are expected regarding market conditions and further production adjustments.

Romania: parliamentary elections

South Africa takes over G20 presidency for one year