London, UK – March 26, 2025: British Prime Minister Rachel Reeves leaves 11 Downing Streets ahead of the release of a spring statement in the House of Commons in London on March 26, 2025 (Photo credits should read Wiktor Szymanowicz/Future Publishing via Getty Images)
wiktor szymanowicz | Future Publishing | Getty Images
The UK government plans to increase public spending, but market watchers will inflate the annual interest payments of $143 billion in annual interest, warning the proposal that there is a risk of sending anxiety through the bond market.
UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves announced Wednesday that the government will inject billions of pounds into defense, healthcare, infrastructure and other economic sectors over the next few years. But a day later, official data showed that the UK economy had shrunk by 0.3% more than expected in April.
Fund public spending in the absence of a growing economy, leaving the government with two options. Funding through taxation or underwriting more debt.
One way you can borrow is to issue bonds known in the UK as gold leaf to the public market. By purchasing gold leaf, investors essentially lend money to the government and there is a bond yield that represents the return that investors can receive.
Gold leaf yields and prices move in the opposite direction, so price increases will decrease and vice versa. This year, Gilt yields have seen volatile movements with investors who are sensitive to geopolitical and macroeconomic instability.
The UK government’s long-term borrowing costs skyrocketed to a massive high in January, yielding 20- and 30 years of gold leaf It continues to hover 5%.
Official estimates show that the government is expected to pay £100 billion ($142.9 billion) national debt for fiscal year 2025.
The government on Wednesday did not say how the newly announced spending hikes will be funded, nor did it respond to a request for comment on where CNBC’s money will come from. However, in last fall budget, Reeves outlined plans to raise both tax and borrowing. Following the budget, the Finance Minister pledged to not raise taxes again during the current term of the Labour Government, saying the government “does not need to re-enaugural such budgets.”
Andrew Goodwin, UK economist at Oxford Economics, said the UK government could be forced to go further with its spending plan, with NATO increasing its member states’ defensive target target to 5% of GDP and poised to win U-turns for winter fuel payments for seniors and other possible welfare reforms.
Furthermore, Goodwin said the UK’s Budget Responsibility Office is likely to make a “adverse revision” to its July economic forecast, leading to reduced tax revenues and increased borrowing.
“If the recent financial market pricing movements are retained, debt services costs will be about £2.5 billion ($3.4 billion) higher than in the spring statement,” Goodwin warned in a memo on Wednesday.
“Very fragile situation”
Mel Stride, the shadow prime minister of the UK’s opposition government, told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe on Thursday that the spending review raised questions about whether “a huge amount of borrowing” would be involved in funding the government’s fiscal strategy.
“(Government) borrowing has resulted in terms of higher inflation in the UK. “It’s added to the debt mountain. This has a service cost running at 100 billion (pounds) a year, which is twice as much as we spend on defense.”
“I’m worried that the entire economy is in a very vulnerable position to withstand the kind of spending and borrowing that this government is making an announcement,” added Stride.
Stride argued that Reeves must raise taxes “almost certainly” in the announcement of its next budget, due in the fall.
“We were in a very vulnerable situation, especially when we had tariffs around the world,” he said.
Rufaro Chiliseri, UK Isles bond head at RBC Wealth Management, told CNBC that the rising borrowing costs are “already at risk for a small financial room” for Reeves.
“This headroom reduction could create a snowman effect as investors could be nervous to keep their UK debt down and could sell more until snowman stability recovers,” she said.
Netwealth’s chief investment officer, Iain Barnes, also told CNBC on Thursday. The UK said “there is a state of financial fragility that limits the scope for maneuvering.”
“The market knows that if growth is disappointing, this year’s budget will have to pay higher taxes and increase in borrowing to fund spending plans,” Burns said.
However, April Larusse, head of investment specialist at Insight Investment, argued that there is a way to manage the burden of debt services.
The UK Debt Management Agency, which issues GILTS, has the scope to reconstruct the issuance pattern (the maturity and type of gold leaf issued).
“With an average gold leaf yield of 1-10 years at C4% and a 15-plus gold leaf yield at 5.2% yield, there is a range to make debt financing costs more affordable,” she explained.
However, Larusse noted that the UK government’s debt payments are estimated to amount to around 3.5% of GDP this fiscal year, and that spending could be overly exacerbated.
“This increase comes not only through higher interest rates but also by gradually converting into higher coupon payments, but also by increasing levels of government spending, worsening financial burden,” she said.
Fix: This article has been updated to correct references to Rufaro Chiriseri.
