In consumers, the corporate boardroom and Wall Street, a sense of economic optimism following the launch of the second Trump administration quickly dipped amid growing uncertainty about the impact of tariffs and the possibility of a recession. New Quarterly CNBC | Surveymonkey Small Business Survey says Main Street has seen similar shifts.
According to data from CNBC | Surveymonkey, 70% say they are fair or poor, compared to 70% say they rate their current economic situation as good or good. This is comparable to 39% of first-quarter polls rated the economy as good or good.
70% of small business owners said they believe the country is heading for a recession. This is a somewhat shared sentiment in the political aisle.
Additionally, 51% of respondents said they were unhappy with the way Donald Trump handles his job as president. This is comparable to 39% of his last quarter as president in 2020.
The small business trust tracked in the survey is currently lower than at any point during Trump’s first term, with the worst quarter of the Covid crisis and the last quarter of his presidency (which reflected Biden’s election and Democrats’ business policy expectations on Main Street).
The CNBC/Surveymonkey poll was conducted between April 21-25, 2025, among a national sample of 2,257 self-identified SME owners.
Large companies continue to sound alarms this revenue season regarding the impact of the proposed tariffs on consumers. Just this past week, jewelry brand Pandora warned of a major price rise across the affordable jewellery industry. Mattel said it could raise the prices of toys like Barbies and Hot Wheels. Microsoft has announced a rise in Xbox consoles and controller prices.
Small and medium-sized businesses expect to impose similar tariffs. Fifty-one percent of respondents said they expected changes in trade policy to have a negative impact on their businesses over the next 12 months, but that it was ineffective, with 21 percent saying it would have a positive effect.
Overall, 66% of small business owners are predicted to be affected by tariffs. Inflation (24%) and consumer demand (18%) remained the highest risks listed by SME owners, while tariffs have increased from 10% to 17% from the last quarter.
Suzanne Clark, CEO of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, told CNBC’s Megan Casera earlier this month that the business lobbying group from potential tariffs is “inundated for small business demands, bailouts.”
The US Chamber of Commerce has appealed to the Trump White House to automatically lift tariffs for all small business importers.
“We are deeply concerned that many small businesses will cause irreparable harm, even if it only takes weeks or months to reach an agreement,” Clark wrote in a letter sent on April 30 to Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent, Commerce Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.
“The Chamber of Commerce calls for the administration to take immediate action to save American small businesses and stop the recession,” she wrote.
Until now, the White House has not been based on these requirements, so continuing uncertainty about potential tariffs and their impacts has resulted in an increase in economic pessimism and increased fear of potential recession.
Many small and medium-sized businesses rely on Chinese manufacturing, and are now subject to 145% tariffs, with many suspending orders from Chinese factories.
On Friday, President Trump said in the true social post that he might be willing to cut China’s tariffs to 80%, teasing that more trade transactions were coming. “Many trade deals at Hopper, all good (great!)!” Trump wrote.
All trade uncertainties add financial stress to small business owners, both for business and their own wallets. Sixty percent of respondents said they were very or somewhat emphasised about their business finances these days, while 63 percent said they felt very stressed or emphasized about their finances. Inflation is the top contributor of overall stress, but tariffs ranked second.
Speaking Wednesday after the Federal Reserve Congress steadily held interest rates, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned that the proposed tariffs could lead to slowing economic growth and increasing long-term inflation.
“If the announced large increase in tariffs is maintained, it is likely to cause an increase in inflation, slower economic growth and increased unemployment. The impact of inflation is short-lived and may reflect one-time changes in price levels.
