Important takeouts:
Solana fell to $192 on Thursday, eliminating the entire rally to $253 in less than a week.
The October 10th Spot ETF ruling could unlock deeper institutional flows.
Sol’s RSI setup signals a potential short-term bottom despite wider modifications to Altcoin.
Solana (Sol) fell below the $200 mark on Thursday, slashing the recent rally to an eight-month high of $253. The 19% DIP rolled out in a week rattled the market momentum and raised questions about its short-term strength.
But the looming catalyst may change the story. Grayscale’s Spot Sol Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) faces its initial approval deadline on October 10th. This is a decision that allows us to determine whether institutional capital flows will begin supporting SOL in a similar way to BTC and ETH over the past year.
The Rex Osprey Staking Sol ETF, launched in July, offers spot exposure, but its construction is less important than pure spot products. Grayscale Spot ETFs may allow more direct institutional participation and unlock deeper fluidity and wider adoption.
That decision is the first in a series of awards. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) plans to review five other applications on October 16, 2025 with a final deadline, including proposals from Bitwise, 21shares, Vaneck, Grayscale and Canary. Collectively, this lineup highlighted the growing interest of agencies in bringing SOLs into mainstream investment vehicles.
Supporters argue that timing can be crucial. Pantera Capital’s asset manager recently called Sol and called Sol “Next line up” citing the shortages associated with BTC and ETH. The institution holds about 16% of Bitcoin and 7% of ether, but less than 1% of the SOL supply is institutionally owned. Pantera Capital has suggested that Spot ETFs could accelerate adoption, particularly as companies like Stripe and PayPal expand their integration with Solana.
Still, not all indicators point to an imminent breakout. Prediction Markets Platform Polymarket currently allocates that there is only a 41% chance that SOL will reach an all-time high in 2025. This has raised lingering caution even as ETF speculations intensify.
Related: Australian fitness company Tank is 21% of Solana Treasury Gambling
80% Hit Rate Signal Sol Bottom Price Indicator
Sol’s price action shows significant volatility over the past three weeks. The token was repeated from $200 to $253 in just 12 days, but a rapid reversal weakened the short-term momentum, and sellers regained the ground faster than they had established it.
However, in the higher time frame, the broader trends remain constructive. The sol continues to form patterns of higher and higher low values, keeping daily structures bullish. The current revisions are deployed within the first major demand zone or order block between $200 and $185. This also overlaps with the 0.50-0.618 Fibonacci retracement band. Holding this zone will strengthen the uptrend and potentially reset momentum.
Losing the $185 level shifts attention to the next order block between $170 and $156. Such a move will not turn the daily charts weakly, but it can significantly weaken the strength of the trend and induce deeper sales pressure.
On the daytime side, the four-hour chart shows signs of seller fatigue. The relative strength index (RSI) fell again below 30. This is the level that historically informed high lows of bottom or SOL.
This setup has happened five times since April 2025, and on four of those occasions, Sol posted Swift Recoveryies. Repeated patterns can result in higher time frame revisions, which can lead to short-term relief.
Related: Solana Open Interest Hits Record 72m Sol, why are prices falling?
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.
