Important takeouts:
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflow reduced 90% from $3 billion to $228 million in four weeks.
While strong ETF influxes often drive Bitcoin rallies, recent data shows that price movements can occur independently.
Despite short-term sales pressures, long-term BTC whale purchases suggest a potential continuation of the BTC upward trend.
The Bitcoin (BTC) market recorded a 90% drop in the Spot BTC Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) inflow, down from $3 billion in the last week of April to just $228 million this week.
Historically, slowing down ETF inflows has affected the price of BTC. Especially when daily inflows average over $1.5 billion in consecutive days. To understand the potential impact on Bitcoin, let’s examine the correlation between the four key periods of key spot ETF activity and BTC price movements.
In the first quarter of 2024, from February 2 to March 15, Spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $113.9 billion over seven weeks, driving a 57% price surge. BTC prices peaked in week 5, as the $4.8 billion inflow in the last two weeks didn’t make it worth it.
Similarly, the third quarter of 2024 saw an influx of $16.8 billion over nine weeks from October 18th to December 13th, facilitating 66% of rallies. However, as the inflow slowed in week 10, Bitcoin prices fell 9%, strengthening the link between ETF flow and price adjustments.
In the first quarter of 2025, a $3.8 billion inflow coincided with a new high of $110,000 on January 20th over two weeks (January 17-24) matched the $110,000 new high on January 20th, but overall prices fell 4.8%.
Recently, there was a $5.8 billion inflow and a 22% price rallies in the second quarter of 2025 (April 25 to September 9), but despite negative net flows, Bitcoin had already scored 8% in the previous two weeks.
This data challenges the notion that Spot ETFs consistently drive prices. Meanwhile, the third and second quarters of 2024 suggest strong influent fuel gatherings, but show prices for the first and first quarters of 2024 could stagnate or fall despite a significant influx. Spot ETF activity and partially independent second-quarter rally suggest other drivers, including US tariffs, retail profits and the accumulation of Bitcoin Zilla.
With currently $228 million inflows, the historical trend is bearish and suggests a potential revision. However, recent whale activities that make more bullish paintings have come back.
Related: Six Signs to Forecast $140,000 as Bitcoin’s Next Price Top
Bitcoin is facing sales pressure, but whales may hold that trend
Bitcoin shows short-term sales pressure as buy/sell pressure goes down, according to Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson. The chart shows that whales are beginning to offload BTC between $105,000 and $100,000. This bearish shift with negative cumulative volume deltas indicates sales pressure in the short term.
However, long-term purchase pressures remain strong, suggesting that this dip is a fix rather than a reversal. Data from encryption highlights that whales are making relatively fewer profits in the current period than their previous price peak. Anonymous analyst Blitzz Trading pointed out,
“We see that whales have significantly lower profits during this recent surge compared to previous gatherings. This could indicate that the upward trend could continue. This chart needs to be monitored closely.”
Related: Bitcoin Bulls are aiming for a new all-time high by next week as capital inflows surge
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.
