The human mind is in a recession

Hello readers. For all the stories about artificial intelligence, the most efficient computers on the planet remain the human brain.

It can run as many seconds as a supercomputer in the world, but only requires power equivalent to a fridge bulb.

This week’s newsletter switches from a regular counter consensus macroeconomic analysis to an unorthodox idea: exploring the economics of the human mind.

There is new research that emphasizes the importance of “brain capital,” a function of brain health, abilities, and skills.

It may sound like wool, but it’s important for two reasons.

First, because industrial revolution machines are increasingly being replaced by human goiter and everyday cognitive tasks. By 2030, the percentage of activities expected to be delivered primarily by people will fall from around 50% today to 33%, according to the World Economic Forum’s latest Future of Jobs report. It places the comparative advantage of humanity in a narrower field of thinking.

Secondly, we are living longer than we are now. Nationally defined retirement age is less relevant to knowledge-driven economies. Individual cognitive skills are a long-term asset than physical fitness.

However, “brain capital” is under pressure.

Diseases that affect brain function include mental health conditions, substance abuse and neurological disorders – are estimated to spend $500 million per year on the global economy (almost in the size of the German economy today, nominally). This is expected to rise to 16tn by 2030.

According to the World Health Organization, depression is a major cause of disorders around the world. Its prevalence has increased by 89% since 1990. Alzheimer’s disease and other dementia are increased by 161%, primarily due to aging populations.

The problem spreads across age distributions. Healthy years have a poorly lost bulge of mental well-being among the traditional “working age” brackets. However, even during retirement, other neurological disorders surge.

The brain’s abilities are also under pressure. “Our spiritual life is more fragmented and scattered than ever,” said Dan Nixon, an expert on the “attention economy.” “Apps, alerts and notifications are trapped in a constant battle to capture and monetize our gaze.”

It is estimated that the size of the digital universe doubles every two years, with 250 million bytes of data being created every day. Many of them are at our fingertips now.

According to Global, daily screen times between devices such as computers, laptops, tablets, mobile phones, TVs, gaming consoles and more have increased from 9 hours in 2012 to 11 hours in 2019, and mobile phones The time spent on the site increased by about 2 hours. study. (I received bumps after the pandemic.)

The increasing demand for our attention is limited by our ability to supply it. This is highlighted by Thales Teixeira, a former professor at Harvard Business School. His research shows how the cost of attention rose, using the price of winning 1,000 impressions in TV ads during the Super Bowl and 1,000 impressions as a proxy in US Primetime indicates. Over time, both have skyrocketed as the competition for consumer attention has expanded to other media, especially as internet usage grows.

Of course, rising screen time means spending more time accessing rich news, research and entertainment. However, trying to absorb too much content has negative side effects.

“Constant exposure to information and notifications can overwhelm our cognitive abilities,” says Mithu Storoni, author of Hyperefufisit, a book on brain optimization. “Flying around between stimuli will reduce attention and overload can contribute to increased mental fatigue, memory impairment and stress.”

In fact, there is a connection between overload and brain health. High social media use is associated with higher levels of depression, especially in younger cohorts. High screen times can worsen ADHD symptoms and are associated with a higher risk of dementia.

Digital technology also affects skills, the third component of “brain capital.”

Aside from technology and AI-related skills, employers surveyed by WEF said creativity, resilience and analytical thinking are likely to become more important over the next five years.

These are also skills tensed by pressure on brain abilities. Digital distractions can block creative thinking, and stress and anxiety caused by information overload can reduce resilience. (Nixon mentioned “Mindless Grossing Impulse,” caused by the dopamine hits she experienced when reaching for her phone and accessing digital content for no particular reason.)

How about analytical thinking? Wide access to big data, machine learning and content supports research capabilities. Still, even basic skills seem to have been atrophy over the past decade.

The OECD’s study of adult skills shows that more developed countries experience a decline in literacy proficiency than improvements over the past decade (even after managing demographic changes such as immigration) . As for the numbers, the photos are more mixed, but I’m still worried.

David Robson, a science writer and author of Intelligence Strap, has several theories.

Various studies suggest that after rising for most of the 20th century, average performance of intelligence tests has begun to stabilize or decline in many countries. This may reflect a change in the way we use our brains. For example, I now use my smartphone for most calculations. Therefore, there is no need to exercise your numerical skills regularly. The vocabulary is also weakening, perhaps due to changes in people’s reading habits.

Robson added that skills that are not captured in IQ tests, such as rationality and critical thinking, tend to correlate more strongly with overall health. But these abilities are under pressure too.

Several studies highlight how news feed algorithms and clickbait can enhance bias by creating “online echo chambers” and disinformation. Both are associated with an increase in political polarization. In America, voter sentiment about the economy is certainly reversed based on alignment with the president. The Gallup Economic Consection Index highlights this, but also shows a general increase in polarity over time. A greater exposure to news that confirms your position online is a possible explanation.

Next, there’s “Google Effect,” which treats search engines as a form of random access memory, and as a result, remembers the facts that are easy to search for.

All of this is partly by exacerbating our innate cognitive biases of our sluggishness of critical thinking. This is nothing new. Even before these effects existed on the Internet. However, the scale and intensity are now very large. In this environment it is easier to outsource consciousness consciously or unconsciously elsewhere, which has the implications that require deeper consideration. (Researchers at Cambridge University recently warned that conversational AI agents can develop the ability to influence our “intention” as well.)

What is the close-up shot? Broad access to information, global improvements in education, and improved nutrition have led to an increase in brain capital. However, there is concern about the trends in brain health, the growing demand for our attention, and the power to undermine our critical thinking.

The human mind is a resource that needs to be strengthened to support long-term happiness, growth and innovation, especially as technology plays a greater role in our lives and our economy. As the world focuses on accumulating billions on artificial intelligence, it is wise not to lose sight of the returns that arise from investing in real intelligence.

thought? Rebuttal? Message me at freelunch@ft.com or x @tejparikh90.

Food for thinking

Did World War II help to build the foundation for US biomedical innovation? The new National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper considers the emphasis on the long-term effects of coordinated application-oriented research on science and technology.