The container backlog occurs on September 21, 2025 at the Longtan Port Container terminal in Nanjing, southern Jiangsu Province, China (photo by Costfoto/Nurphoto via Getty Images)
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The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development upgraded its global economic growth forecast on Tuesday. Many economies appear to be more resilient than expected this year.
The OECD expects global growth of 3.2% this year, compared to the 2.9% expansion forecast in June. 2026 expectations remained unchanged at 2.9%. This will give you a slowdown from the 3.3% growth seen in 2024.
Compared to the 1.6% estimate in June, US growth expectations have also been raised to 1.8% in 2025. However, this is still a significant drop from 2.8% growth in 2024. The organization forecasts US growth of 1.5% in 2026.
“Global growth was more resilient than expected in the first half of 2025, especially in many emerging market economies,” the organization said in a new report.
“Industrial production and trade were supported by front-loading ahead of higher tariffs. The outcome of strong AI-related investments in the US increased, and financial support in China outweighed resistance from trade headwinds and weakened property markets.”
Alvaro Pereira, the OECD chief economist, told CNBC’s Charlotte Reed on Tuesday that individual economic events in emerging markets, including Brazil, Indonesia and India, also boosted the global economy.
“But to be honest with you, most forecasts haven’t changed much about every forecast for the G20 countries, but I expect this frontload to be slower in the second part of the year after the first quarter,” he said.
The impact of tariffs is still coming
However, the OECD warned that “significant risks to the economic outlook remained” as investment and trade continue to suffer high levels of policy uncertainty and rising tariffs.
The sweep obligation for goods that entered the US came into effect in August after months of policy changes, a temporary suspension and threats from US President Donald Trump.
Today, countries and regions around the world face 50% higher tariff rates for exports to the US, with some trying to negotiate trade frameworks.
“The US bilateral tariff rate has increased in almost all countries since May. Overall, the effective US tariff rate rose to an estimated 19.5% at the end of August, the highest speed since 1933,” the OECD said.
“The full impact of tariff increases is yet to be felt. Many changes are gradually progressing over time, absorbing the tariff increase through margins at first, but are becoming increasingly noticeable in spending choices, labor markets and consumer prices,” he added.
The report shows that while the labor market shows signs of softening as unemployment rates are high and job openings are considered low in some countries, the developmental process appears to be flattened.
“The tariff shock is causing more inflationary pressure in many countries,” OECD’s Pereira said.
“We expect additional price impacts for businesses not only in the US but also in other parts of the world,” he said.
The OECD expects headline inflation to reach 3.4% in 2025 in G20 countries, slightly lower than its 3.6% forecast in June. US inflation expectations have been revised more rapidly, with the OECD projecting a price increase of 2.7% in 2025, down from its previous 3.2% forecast.
Future future increases in tariffs and returns of inflationary pressures have been flagged as two important risks in the organization’s report, along with growing concerns about the possibility of re-ricausing in the financial situation and financial markets.
“High and volatile crypto assets valuations pose financial stability risks, taking into account increased interconnectedness with traditional financial systems. Reducing trade restrictions or rapid development and adoption of artificial intelligence technologies could enhance growth prospects,” the OECD said.
