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Hello, welcome to work week.
It’s never enough for Donald Trump. The US President on Wednesday named the day that the secondary tariffs will be launched on taxes already announced to punish exporters of aluminum, steel, cars and fentanyl. Don calls it “Day of Liberation,” but a more appropriate moniker may have been created by Marc Ostwald, chief economist and global strategist at ADM Investor Services International: “Demolition Day.”
Trump is considering a two-stage approach to his new tariff regime, deploying rarely used authority to impose emergency duties and completing probes to trade partners. FT’s trade columnist Alan Beattie says his (premium subscriber) newsletter Stread Secret explains the flaws in the Trump administration’s proposed method.
Tej Parikh, writer for FT Economics Leader, describes the incident in which many of the risks belong to the US economy. Because it’s not as important to globalization as some people think. The United States accounts for only 13% of global goods imports. This is down from a fifth of almost 50 years ago. Furthermore, a study by IMD Business School professor Simon Eventett found that even if the US cut off imports of all goods, 70 trading partners would fully compensate for the losses in sales to the US within a year, and 115 would do so within five years, assuming that even if the US shuts down imports of all goods, and that 115 would maintain their current export growth rate in other markets.
Whatever the final ruling this week, the short-term impact of secondary tariffs could be the least likely for the American economy. The country may simply lose faith in doing business with the United States.
Billions of pounds in banks with UK businesses are in crisis this week as the UK Supreme Court hears appeals against a ruling that shocked auto finance providers by finding that the committees paid to auto dealers are illegal.
The Supreme Court hearing, which begins Tuesday, will have a wide range of legal implications that extend beyond the automotive market and across many areas of consumer finance. This withstands a potential wave of consumer claims about enormous amounts of compensation. UK Financial Watchdog says it is preparing to launch an industry-wide relief scheme for its customers.
Speaking of moments of danger, the political future of French far-right leader Marine Le Pen lies on a verdict on Monday on whether she committed fraud and embezzlement, including EU funds.
If convicted, the three presidential candidate and the opposition leader could be sentenced to five years of public office in the 2027 presidential election to stop her from being a candidate.
The UK’s new tax year begins at the end of this week, meaning the introduction of a long-term increase in employers’ contributions to national insurance. The rate rises by 1.2 percentage points to 15%, but the per employer threshold where employers begin paying NICs will be reduced from £9,100 a year to £5,000 a year. This story is like Trump’s tariffs in this case, in terms of employment slowdowns, in that the impact was felt before it happened, and could affect the future potential of the economy that may be less likely to be bullied by other factors.
There are lots of company results on this week’s calendar. There are some notable central bank speeches and limited economic data, particularly German inflation numbers, G7 economic comparisons with index data from purchase managers, and US employment updates. More details are below.
One more thing. . .
It’s definitely a good week for Microsoft. This celebrates turning 50 at Seattle headquarters on Friday. Special appearances are expected from key figures in the company’s history, including co-founder Bill Gates and former CEO Steve Ballmer. If you want to know more about the gate, I would recommend his memoir (the first of the three firsts expected), the source code. This is an FT review by a colleague at Richard Waters on the West Coast.
What are your plans for the next week? Are you optimistic about the future? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com. Or, if you’re reading this from your inbox, please click Reply.
Major Economy and Company Reports
This week, here is a more complete list of what you should expect from a company’s report and economic data perspective.
Monday
Germany: March Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Highly Adjusted Consumer Price (HICP) Inflation Data
India, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Singapore, Türkiye, UAE: Eid E-Fetr (End of Ramadan) Holiday. Financial markets have been closed
Italy: Provisional March CPI inflation data
UK: The Bank of England publishes monthly money and credit data and February effective interest rate figures in UK deposit and lending accounts.
Results: Bertelsmann FY, Pennon Group Trading Statement, Petershill Partners FY, Pets at Home Trading Statement, Yougov Hy
Tuesday
Megan Green, an external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, will give a keynote speech at the UK Women’s Economic Network Event in London
European Central Bank Chairman Christine Lagarde speaks at the Frankfurt Conference on Transformation Power of AI: Economic Impact and Challenges
The UK lender is the appeal of South African brothers and South Africa Firstland against the Landmark ruling by the London Court of Appeal that car finance brokers must fully inform their clients of car loan fees in a multi-billion pound consumer relief scheme. A linked appeal hearing in the UK Supreme Court is listed as taking three days
Ivan Espinosa became Nissan’s CEO and succeeded during his successor
The Hornby shareholders’ meeting will vote for a voluntary abolition of shares from transactions at London’s Junior Aim Market. If approved, cancellation will take effect on April 10th
Australia: Retail figures for February
Canada, China, Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, USA: S&P Global/HCOB/Caixin March Purchasing Managers’Index (PMI) Data
EU: Flash March inflation rate data. Also, the unemployment rate in February
Japan: March Tankan Enterprise Survey and February Labor Force Survey (local time)
UK: April National Home Price Index and Kantal’s Grocery Market Share and Inflation Data
US: February Job vacancies and Labor Turnover Survey (Jolts) Data
Results: Niox Group FY, Pinewood Technologies FY, PVH Q4
Wednesday
India: HSBC March Manufacturing PMI Data
Results: Big Technologies FY, Raspberry Pi FY, SSE Trading Update, Topps Tiles HY Trading Statement
Thursday
Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, USA: S&P Global/HCOB/CAIXIN March Services PMI Data
EU: European Central Bank has released the minutes of the last Monetary Policy Conference
UK: March International Reservation Data
Results: Baillie Gifford Shin Nippon FY, Conagra Brands Q3, MoonPig Trading Update, Lamb Weston Holdings Q3
Friday
Bill Gates and Paul Allen from Albuquerque, New Mexico celebrate the 50th anniversary of the founding of US technology company Microsoft
France, Germany, Italy, EU: S&P Global/HCOB March Construction PMI Data
India: HSBC March Services PMI Data
UK: British Chamber of Commerce Economic Survey
US: March Employment Figures
Results: Sodexo HY, Yaskawa Electric Corp Fy
World events
Finally, we’ll give you an overview of other events and milestones this week.
Monday
Belgium: Trade unions will take the stage on the general strike over government-suggested labor market reform. Flights departing from Brussels and Charleroy airports will be cancelled that day
Denmark: King Frederick and Queen Mary begin their three-day state visit to France.
EU: 15% reduction in gas usage plans designed to reduce reliance on electricity supplied by Russia is over
France: Court ruling in the trial of far-right leader Marine Le Pen, in the range of using European Parliament funds to pay party workers
UK: Stamp Duty Land Tax 250,000 £250,000 £250,000 £250,000 £250,000
Tuesday
April Fool’s Day
France is hoping to be the presidency of the UN Security Council
UK: Increases in the national living wage and the national minimum wage will be effective
Sir James Mackie takes over Amanda Pritchard as CEO of NHS England
United States: Florida will hold special elections to fill the House seat vacant by Donald Trump’s national security adviser, Matt Getz, the first choice for the US president for the Attorney General. Republicans are expected to easily seize both seats
Wednesday
Thursday
Belgium: NATO Foreign Ministers meet at a two-day meeting in Brussels. Military Bloc Chief Mark Latte addresses the media on both days
Serbia: The 49th Ordinary UEFA Conference will be held in Belgrade. This annual event brings together the presidents and general secretaries of UEFA’s 55 member football associations to make decisions on European soccer governance.
Uzbekistan: EU Central Asia Summit, first Asian Summit among leaders of the EU and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan
Saturday
UK: The world’s most famous spire, Grand National, operates at Aintree Racecourse near Liverpool
US: Washington’s ticut ban has come into effect and the app must be shut down or sold along with its owner, the Chinese internet company, Baitedan
Sunday
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