There is only one woman in the UK who can trust to predict inflation

The expectations of inflation are controversial for obvious reasons.

You go to the general public and ask them how they think prices will change over different periods of choice, and then come to a conclusion about what actually happens.

Capturing this data was a central feature of the Bank of England’s inflation attitude research, and was done quarterly by Pollster Ipsos via “owner panels” and “trusted partners.” According to the research methodology, the “strict set of quality procedures” ensures that these panelists are “realistic, unique, fresh (not over-examining research on topics) and engaged.” I don’t particularly care if I know anything about inflation or not.

We recently wrote about the oddity of IAS questions 11-14 of the Bank of England.

What we didn’t record time at the time was that IPSOS could release individual answers to these questions and create a macroeconomic survey version of Takehi’s Castle. It’s about looking at the cohort as a collection of individual humans and seeing them struggle through this cruel and extraordinary survey.

So, obviously, we did that.

According to an Ipsos press release, around 2,000 people are taking IAS, but in reality it appears to be almost twice as much. There were 4,270 respondents on the February outing with unique IDs ranging from #235864 to #240133. Let’s find out about them:

Round 1: Slippery Wall Rate Setter Relay

Of course, we’ll start with question 11.

Q11: Every month, a group of people gather to set the UK basic interest rate level. Do you know what this group is?

The options are:

Monetary Policy Committee

Bank of England

government

Ministry of Finance

Parliament

other

I don’t know

From that choice we argue that the Monetary Policy Committee is the only true correct answer. How many respondents got it?

It’s a brutal first round, lowering Plack 4,270 to 648. Press the cog icon on the right to filter out the results and confirm/refute your bias.

Therefore, one in seven respondents remains. In round 2.

Round 2: Square Maze Inflation Trap

Q12: Which of these groups do you think has an interest rate?

Government Minister

Civil servant

Bank of England

High Street Bank

European Central Bank

I don’t know

Question 12 is difficult. As explained in a previous article, in the context of Question 11, there is no clearly revised answer here. Also note the ambiguity that Q11 refers to the “British Basic Interest Rate.” This is a much more vague “interest rate.”

Government ministers and civil servants certainly aren’t the correct answers, but depending on the interpretation of the question, banks, high street banks and European Central Banks are all close. But if the Monetary Policy Committee was the answer before, certainly should we request the same specificity here?

So the only correct answer is not knowing. As Marla Daniels says on wire:

The game is equipped, but you cannot lose it unless you play it

How many people stuck to their beliefs and avoided the trap?

Yikes, only 10 people remain. In round 3.

Round 3: Bad attitude on the uphill

Q13: In fact, the decision will be made by the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. Which of these do you think best explains the Monetary Policy Committee?

Part of the government

Quango fully appointed by the government

Independent bodies partially appointed by the government

A completely independent body

I don’t know

Admitting that he brutally locked up the respondent, Ipsos throws another curveball here.

As we see, some of the government is undoubtedly correct, as is the independent institutions that have been partially appointed by the government. MPC certainly isn’t Quango in itself. If we become brutal, it cannot be quite described as a completely independent body. I don’t think we know that this is an acceptable answer once again.

Let’s take a look at how the respondents did it.

So… Seven survivors – three men and four women – ran the Boe/Ipsos research trap correctly and survived to tell the story. Finally, there are seven spectacular British.

What can we learn about these heroes? Well, everything except #239763 describes themselves as not satisfied or dissatisfied with the work the Bank of England is doing about inflation (though in fact they know that it is MPC’s job). As for #239763, she is a chaff and has a “very satisfied” response.

Round 4: Clean out the final filtration

Can I cut this group further? One of the few other questions with a correct answer is 1.

Q1: Which of these options best explains how prices have changed over the past 12 months?

If respondents were to take the position of treating this as a UK-specific question without other information, the answer in February was 2.8% (assuming they believe in ONS).

Of our seven people, only one was correct: #240130 replied “2% but less than 3%.” All others said they chose at least 4% or they didn’t know.

So. . . There’s a winner! #240130 is one of the IAS respondents who do what is enough for FT Alphaville to listen to.

#240130, we’re going to call Hannah, a Scottish woman between the ages of 16 and 24. She is a student, but earns between £20,000 and £34,999 a year. She has an A-level but has no degree (yet!). Hannah, we salute you.

Now that we’ve filtered this in the only wise way that can do this, let’s hear about Hanna’s annual (shop) inflation schedule.

12 months later: I don’t know.

Two years later: It will rise by 2%, but it will fall below 3%

Five years from now: I don’t know.

There is no short-term or long-term certainty, but make sure that inflation rates reach its target in a few years. Although we don’t know what the future holds for the younger Hannah, the central banker is definitely a career option she should consider.