Important takeouts:
The 2021-style bearish divergence on the weekly chart shows a possible 50% or more correction against $64,000.
Peter Brandt warns that Bitcoin is at risk of retrieving its parabolic trendline soon or ending the bull cycle before it reaches its $150,000 target.
Bitcoin (BTC) has surged to a record $112,000, which recorded new hopes for its $150,000 goal by the end of the year, but the quick fix below $105,000 is testing its bullish narrative.
Is Bitcoin painting a bearish inverted setup?
Bitcoin draws what appears to be an inverted cup and handle pattern, and its neckline serves as current support for nearly $100,800. As of June 7th, the price has entered the handle formation stage, focusing on breakdowns under the neckline.
Based on the reverse cup and handle pattern setup, a breakdown below $100,800 is likely to drop to $91,000 for Bitcoin.
The $91,000 downside target coincides with BTC’s 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA, blue wave).
Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) has declined in parallel with its price, indicating the conviction of a powerful trader behind the ongoing sale.
As of June 7th, the RSI measured 52, reflecting the weaker reverse momentum. A break below 50 can increase the negative side pressure.
To regain control, the Bulls must regain Bitcoin’s 20-day EMA (purple wave) resistance at a level of around $105,000. A decline towards $91,000 could effectively reduce the likelihood that BTC will hit $150,000 by the end of 2025.
2021 Fractal suggests that BTC will not reach $150,000 in 2025
On a wider timescale, familiar warnings flash on Bitcoin weekly charts.
A bearish divergence has formed between prices and RSI, reflecting the top of the cycle in 2021, when RSI fell despite high prices. That difference preceded a 200-week EMA (Blue Wave) and a 61% revision to:
A similar structure is now visible. The divergence forms just below $112,000 in height and is projected to pullback targets of around $64,000 near the 200-week EMA, indicating a potential 52% decline.
This historic setup raises doubts about Bitcoin reaching the widely debated $150,000 target by the end of 2025.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt adds more weight to this outlook.
In a May 2025 analysis, Brandt identified an upward wedge pattern and warned that Bitcoin must regain its parabolic trendline so that it will continue to do well at the top of the cycle of $125,000-$150,000 by August or September 2025.
He says that if they don’t, they could mark the end of the current bullish cycle.
Gold’s Trajectory, Bitcoin “Bull Flag” suggests $150,000
Despite the growing number of technical warnings, some analysts are confident about Bitcoin’s path to $150,000.
Traders see similarities between Bitcoin’s current market structure in the 2000s and the explosive breakout of gold. They argue that BTC can mimic Gold’s historical trajectory and bolster the $150,000 scenario.
Analyst Tony Severino cites a potential bull flag structure to predict the BTC price boom to $150,000.
From an on-chain perspective, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. believes that BTC is approaching an important “start” rally zone based on historical cycle patterns.
If the NUPL/MVRV ratio is damaged and held above 1.0, analysts say it can push Bitcoin prices up to the $150,000-$175,000 range, similar to the rallies seen in 2017 and 2021.
This article does not include investment advice or recommendations. All investment and trading movements include risk and readers must do their own research when making decisions.
